HARI SREENIVASAN: Good evening.
I'm Hari Sreenivasan.
Judy Woodruff is away.
On the "NewsHour" tonight: ISIS suicide attackers strike, killing dozens at a Shiite cultural
center in Afghanistan's capital, Kabul.
Then: Medicaid expansion has come to Maine, thanks to voters, but Maine's governor remains
opposed.
GOV.
PAUL LEPAGE (R), Maine: You have to pay for the law.
It's going to cost money.
And I intend to implement it.
And the legislature is required to fund it.
If they do not fund it, it will not be implemented.
HARI SREENIVASAN: And the Trump agenda: assessing the administration's foreign policy.
All that and more on tonight's "PBS NewsHour."
(BREAK)
HARI SREENIVASAN: At least 41 dead, more than 80 wounded, that's the toll in today's bombing
attack in Kabul, Afghanistan.
It was the latest in a series of strikes by the Islamic State group.
John Yang begins our coverage.
JOHN YANG: Cries of grieving relatives echoed through the wreckage of a Shiite cultural
center.
Most found only shoes on a blood-stained floor.
MAN (through translator): I saw many dead in the area.
I was looking for my cousin, but I could not find his body.
I'm not sure what happened to him.
JOHN YANG: Officials said a suicide attacker slipped inside and blew himself up.
As people fled, more bombs went off outside.
Many of the victims were students attending a conference at the center, which is in a
poor neighborhood of Western Kabul.
Bloody and burned, they flooded into a nearby hospital.
MOHAMMAD HASSAN REZAYEE, Victim (through translator): The conference had started.
A blast went off.
After that, I was unconscious.
When I regained consciousness, the meeting hall was full of flames and smoke.
JOHN YANG: The Taliban denied any involvement.
And the Islamic State group, made up of Sunni extremists, claimed responsibility.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani called it an attack against Islam and all human values.
The White House also condemned the bombing, which came despite last week's claim of victory
over the Islamic State from the vice president during a visit to Afghanistan.
MIKE PENCE, Vice President of the United States: ISIS is on the run.
Their capital has fallen.
Their so-called caliphate has crumbled from Iraq to Afghanistan and everywhere in between.
JOHN YANG: But the militants have been stepping up their strikes in Kabul, and they continue
battling U.S. and Afghan troops in Eastern Afghanistan.
For the "PBS NewsHour," I'm John Yang.
HARI SREENIVASAN: To help us assess the situation, we're joined by Laurel Miller.
She was the deputy and then acting special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
during the Obama administration.
She's now a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.
Laurel Miller, what's the status of ISIS in Afghanistan?
LAUREL MILLER, RAND Corporation: ISIS has proven to be a surprisingly resilient force
in Afghanistan over the last couple of years.
It emerged in early 2015, predominantly composed of former Pakistani Taliban.
That is a different group than the Afghan Taliban, though it has undoubtedly attracted
some local adherents as well, including other militant groups, such as the Islamic Movement
of Uzbekistan, which is an Afghanistan-focused group.
It has suffered considerable pressure from the U.S. forces in Afghanistan, from Afghan
government forces and, indeed, from Afghan Taliban forces as well.
But despite claims of success and the progress against the group in Afghanistan over the
last year-and-a-half, as you saw in today's events there, it has proven resilient, and
it has proven able to regenerate its forces.
HARI SREENIVASAN: How much of this is due to the porous and somewhat lawless border
with Pakistan?
LAUREL MILLER: That's certainly a factor that facilitates the endurance of a variety of
militant groups in the region.
It's not just a question of the porousness of the border, a border of that area that
indeed many locals simply don't recognize as an actual border, but it's also a question
of the lack of any government control on either side of the border and a certain lawlessness
and remoteness in this area.
HARI SREENIVASAN: What's the relationship between the Taliban and the ISIS?
They're philosophically rather different.
LAUREL MILLER: They are rather different.
The Afghan Taliban is a, essentially, nationalist organization in Afghanistan.
It has political goals.
It, from its own self-perception, was illegitimately overthrown by U.S. forces in 2001, and it
believes that it has a claim on legitimate power in Afghanistan.
It doesn't have ambitions beyond the border of Afghanistan.
The ISIS branch in Afghanistan-Pakistan area, by contrast, is part of the global ISIS movement
that has a variety of branches around the world, and that branch sees the Afghan government
as an illegitimate force, but in a different way than the Afghan Taliban.
The Afghan Taliban and the ISIS branch in Afghanistan have actively fought each other.
They may benefit from some of the same kinds of supply networks in the region, but they
are groups that are opposed to each other and have engaged in combat against each other.
HARI SREENIVASAN: So, is this the global nature of ISIS that keeps it funded?
I mean, where do they get their support?
LAUREL MILLER: That's difficult to say.
I mean, early on, there were some indications of financial support, material support from
the core of ISIS in Iraq, Syria, but that has no doubt dwindled as the fortunes of core
ISIS have dwindled as well.
But, like other militant groups in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, ISIS is able to generate revenue locally
to keep its fight going.
It's able to extort the local population, exploit them in a variety of ways.
And, of course, we're talking about a region that's just awash in weaponry, and not terribly
difficult to obtain.
HARI SREENIVASAN: All right, Laurel Miller, thanks so much.
LAUREL MILLER: Thank you.
HARI SREENIVASAN: In the day's other news: The U.S. military says an airstrike near Somalia's
capital killed four Al-Shabaab militants and blew up a vehicle packed with explosives.
According to the U.S. Africa Command, the targets were hit 15 miles west of Mogadishu
on Wednesday night.
Al-Shabaab was behind October's massive truck bombing that killed 512 people in the Somalia
capital.
A deep freeze gripped half the country again today, setting records from Arkansas to Maine.
It was 32 degrees below zero this morning in Watertown, New York, and that's not factoring
in the windchill.
In Buffalo, the arctic air froze the spray from Lake Erie, encasing nearby benches and
railings in a thick layer of ice.
And, in Philadelphia, this fountain froze into an icy sculpture in 14-degree weather.
The cold is expected to last through the weekend.
Alabama Democrat Doug Jones was certified today as the winner of a special U.S. Senate
election.
He beat Republican Roy Moore by 22,000 votes amid accusations that Moore preyed on teenage
girls decades ago.
Today, state officials signed documents, making the results official after a judge rejected
Moore's claim of voter fraud.
JOHN MERRILL, Alabama Secretary of State: I don't think there's any doubt in the minds
of anybody that is in this room or anybody that is within the sound of my voice that
if it was ever a question about whether or not the state of Alabama conducts honest and
fair, safe and secure elections, that question has been eliminated from anyone's thought
and mind.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Jones will be sworn into the Senate on January 3, leaving the Republicans
with the slimmest of majorities, 51-49.
President Trump charged today that China has been -- quote -- "caught red-handed" allowing
illicit oil shipments to North Korea.
He said in a tweet: "There will never be a friendly solution to the North Korean problem
if that continues."
A South Korean newspaper has reported Chinese ships are transferring oil to North Korean
ships at sea, in violation of U.N. sanctions.
And on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 63 points to close at 24837.
The Nasdaq rose 10 points, and the S&P 500 added almost five.
Still to come on the "NewsHour": will the new tax law turn employees into owners?; Maine's
governor and Maine voters fight over expanding Medicaid; the Trump agenda, reviewing the
year of the president's foreign policy shifts; and much more.
Now additional details of the new tax laws.
The rewrite of the tax code, signed by the president last week, takes effect on Monday.
One of its central features and biggest changes involves a tax rate known as the pass-through
rate.
Many experts are watching to see how businesses, employers and individuals adjust, and what
kind of loopholes it may offer.
Correspondent Lisa Desjardins reports on what that pass-through rate is and who might be
affected.
LISA DESJARDINS: In the tax code, not all business is created equal.
Corporations, defined by the fact that they pay direct corporate taxes, saw the biggest
tax cut in the Republican law.
That led Republicans to create another tax break for smaller companies.
DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: Historic small business tax cuts and pass-throughs
now are made really, really good for the business owner.
The small business tax cut and the pass-throughs are now really incentivizing people.
LISA DESJARDINS: So, what is a pass-through?
First, it's not necessarily small.
Put that out of your mind.
Instead, pass-throughs are any of several business, partnerships, limited liability
or sole proprietorships, where the business is not taxed on its own, no corporate tax.
Instead, profits pass-through to individual owners, and they are taxed for those profits
as their own individual income.
These can be smaller businesses, like local hardware stores and doggy care, or pass-throughs
can be much larger high-dollar businesses, like Sunoco LP.
That's why the GOP tax bill is so dramatic: It gives millions of pass-through owners a
new 20 percent deduction.
Now, there are some limits, as Congress tried to guard against a surge in pass-throughs.
One, for some professions, like doctors and attorneys, the deduction phases out after
$157,500 in income for individuals or $315,000 for a married couple.
And, two, for larger businesses, the deduction cannot be more than a certain percentage of
all the wages they pay.
Also blocked, tax experts and accountants, who lose a deduction, but seem certain to
gain a lot more business this complex part of the law alone.
For more on the pass-through rate and changes in the tax law, Adam Looney watches this closely
for the Tax Policy Center, run by the Brookings Institution and Urban Institute.
Thank you so much for joining us.
And I want to ask you right off the bat, Adam, how big of a change is this really in tax
law?
ADAM LOONEY, Tax Policy Center: It's huge.
So we have never had a system where business income was taxed at a lower rate than wage
income.
And we have never had a system where the self-employed paid lower taxes than ordinary employees.
So, for those taxpayers, it is a really big deal.
LISA DESJARDINS: So businesses have really never been cut up like this.
It's either been a corporate rate or an individual rate.
ADAM LOONEY: That's right.
And, moreover, it's always been a better deal to be a wage earner than to be a corporation,
at least for the last 40-plus years.
LISA DESJARDINS: As we reported, Congress is trying to put some guardrails in here,
worried that perhaps everyone, including you and me, might rush to try and establish their
own pass-through business.
But how clear are those?
Do we know that those are really going to be effective limits at this point?
ADAM LOONEY: Well, there's two issues.
So, one is, in order to get the pass-through deduction, you have to be pass-through or
you have to be self-employed.
And so there are some hurdles to jump over to get to be self-employed.
A lot of those are practical issues, not so much legal ones.
In fact, the difference between being self-employed and an employee is a legal gray area that
the IRS really doesn't have authority to issue regulations about.
So that will continue to be a gray area.
The second issue is that, once you are -- if you are a self-employed person or a small
business owner, then your income has to qualify in order to receive the deduction.
If you make less than $315,000 and you're married, then you get the deduction.
Above that level, it depends on whether you're a doctor or a lawyer or in a different trade.
LISA DESJARDINS: Or I think professional sports stars.
There's all kinds of high-income exceptions in here.
ADAM LOONEY: That's right.
That's right.
LISA DESJARDINS: Right.
Again, we see a lot of specific carve-outs in this law.
Can you give us an example, though, of someone who would benefit, you think, from this kind
of deduction next year?
ADAM LOONEY: Sure.
Well, a lot of people who are small business owners, pass-through business owners, or self-employed
will benefit.
So, for instance, if you're a plumber that makes $60,000 a year and you're self-employed,
you get a pretty big break.
So, for instance, if you had instead been paid wages of $60,000, the wage earner is
going to pay something like 45 percent more in income taxes, several thousand dollars
a year on the same income for doing the same job.
So, in that case, the pass-through deduction really benefits that person a lot.
LISA DESJARDINS: So, for a plumber just who makes $60,000 a year, for them, this pass-through
is going to mean how many thousand of dollars, do you think?
ADAM LOONEY: It's a couple thousand of dollars a year every year that it's in effect.
So, it's a big bonus for the self-employed person.
LISA DESJARDINS: On the other hand, are there concerns about what this will do for revenue
for the federal government, especially if we see many more people deciding to be self-employed?
ADAM LOONEY: Sure.
So, if people simply switch their classification, if they're doing the same job, but changing
from being a wage earner, an employee, to being a pass-through business owner, then
revenues are going to fall without contributing much to economic growth, because that person
is going to be doing the same job.
And so we actually had an experiment much like this in Kansas, where Kansas reduced
its tax rate on pass-through businesses.
Tax revenues fell below projections.
There was little economic growth.
They had a budget crisis, and ultimately reversed those changes.
LISA DESJARDINS: It's always risky when you make these big changes in the tax code.
ADAM LOONEY: That's right.
LISA DESJARDINS: And, briefly, the IRS, do we know if they're ready to sort of put out
the rules for something like this?
ADAM LOONEY: Well, this bill was passed very quickly.
It goes in effect in basically a week.
And so I think that they are going to be scrambling for quite some time to get the rules and regulations
in place and to issue guidance to taxpayers, so that they can get ready and take advantage
of these new provisions.
LISA DESJARDINS: Adam Looney, thank you so much for trying to clear up a very complicated
area of this tax bill.
ADAM LOONEY: Sure.
Thank you.
LISA DESJARDINS: Appreciate it.
HARI SREENIVASAN: The battle over repealing the health care law occupied much of the national
political agenda this year.
The individual mandate for coverage was repealed through the tax bill starting in 2019.
But Republican efforts to repeal the expansion of Medicaid failed, at least for now.
Yet, even as that debate played out, voters in Maine overwhelmingly approved a ballot
measure last month to expand Medicaid there to most low-income adults.
The victory has reinvigorated advocates looking to expand Medicaid in other states.
But as special correspondent Sarah Varney reports, the battle is not yet over in Maine.
Our story was produced in collaboration with our partner Kaiser Health News.
SARAH VARNEY: Donna Wall cares for her three adult autistic children at her home in Lewiston,
Maine.
It's a full-time job.
Her sons Christopher and Brandon have frequent outbursts and the stress of tending to them
can be overwhelming.
When her sons turned 18 a year-and-a-half ago, Maine's Medicaid program dropped her
health insurance.
Wall is considered a childless adult in Maine and other states that didn't expand Medicaid,
and so she isn't eligible for coverage.
She can no longer get her anti-depression and anxiety medications.
She can't see her psychologist or a doctor to check up on a troubling spot on her eye.
She needs to stay whole, she says, for her kids.
DONNA WALL, Maine Resident: I'm 60 years old.
Things start going wrong when you get older, and I haven't had a Pap smear or breast exam
in two years.
I'm just worried something will happen to me, because who is going to take care of them?
It's a big job.
It really is.
I mean, if I put the boys in a home, it would cost the state a lot more to take care of
them than it would be to pay my medical.
SARAH VARNEY: Even on frigid wintry nights, Wall delivers newspapers, earning $150 a week
when her kids are asleep.
DONNA WALL: I go out about 2:00 in the morning.
And it usually takes me four to five hours.
And I try really hard not to fall, but I have had a few accidents.
One of them was on black ice last winter.
SARAH VARNEY: At one point, Wall thought she might have broken a rib.
But she stayed away from the emergency room, for fear of a costly medical bill.
At least 70,000 low-income Maine residents, like Donna Wall, should gain Medicaid health
insurance because of the ballot measure that passed last month.
Advocates collected signatures to put the question to voters, and, in November, Maine
became the first state to get approval at the ballot box to expand Medicaid, passing
with 59 percent approval.
But even though voters here in Maine decided to expand Medicaid, the law's fate is still
unclear.
Republican Governor Paul LePage says opening up the program to more poor adults threatens
the state's financial stability and that lawmakers shouldn't raise taxes to pay for it.
GOV.
PAUL LEPAGE (R), Maine: You have to pay for the law.
It's going to cost money.
And I intend to implement it, and the legislature is required to fund it.
If they do not fund it, it will not be implemented.
SARAH VARNEY: LePage has been in power for seven years and, because of term limits, is
heading into his final year in office.
He vetoed five Medicaid expansion bills passed by the legislature before voters approved
it at the ballot box.
LePage says lawmakers must now pay for the new law without raising taxes or dipping into
the state's rainy day fund.
And he warns that the expansion could threaten services for people with disabilities and
the elderly.
GOV.
PAUL LEPAGE: When able-bodied people, who are able and should be working, choose not
to work, then I don't think it's society's responsibility to cover their insurance, at
the expense of our mentally ill, our disabled, and our elderly.
We're asking hardworking Maine families to pick up the extra tab for people who should
be working, but elect not to be.
SARA GIDEON (D), Maine State Representative: Wow, well that's just simply not true.
SARAH VARNEY: Sara Gideon, a Democrat, is the speaker of Maine's House of Representatives.
SARA GIDEON: Let's start with the population of people who will actually be eligible for
health insurance now.
We're talking about people, almost 70 percent of whom are people who are actually in the
work force, who are earning a living, but not actually able to afford health care with
the low income that they earn.
SARAH VARNEY: Gideon says LePage must follow the law.
Moreover, she's confident the legislature will find a way to fund the state's share
of $54 million and keep its promises to the elderly and disabled.
SARA GIDEON: It's not a choice between people, one group of people over another.
It's a false choice that this governor is trying to present, and we say, we're not going
to make that choice.
It is the law.
And we're simply going to make sure that that law is implemented.
MARIE VIENNEAU, CEO, Mayo Regional Hospital: Our rural hospital is struggling.
We don't make money.
We lost a million-and-a-half dollars the last two years.
SARAH VARNEY: Marie Vienneau, CEO Of Mayo Regional Hospital in Dover-Foxcroft, says
money from the Medicaid expansion can't come fast enough.
Maine's rural towns and their hospitals have been hard-hit.
Factories have closed and many residents have moved away.
MARIE VIENNEAU: We're going to go by what was Moosehead Manufacturing.
They made furniture that was very well known throughout the country, as well and Dover.
And then, of course, paper mills were huge in all of this area.
SARAH VARNEY: As workers lost their jobs, more uninsured patients turned to rural hospitals
desperate for medical care, but unable to pay.
While Mayo is facing financial uncertainty, at least three rural hospitals in Maine have
closed in recent years.
Deanna Chevery was laid off after 25 years when the Dexter Shoe factory closed in Dexter,
Maine.
Now 60 years old and uninsured, she's recovering from an addiction to pain pills prescribed
by her doctor for back pain.
She overdosed five times, costing Mayo Regional Hospital over $200,000 in unreimbursed care.
Before Chevery found the charity recovery program at Mayo Regional, she says she was
turned away when she sought help because she couldn't pay.
DEANNA CHEVERY, Patient: You can only go so many places.
Nobody will take you.
I mean, they don't care if you're crawling on the ground.
I'm just fortunate Dover helps me.
SARAH VARNEY: But Vienneau says the hospital cannot keep up with Maine's growing opioid
epidemic and ever rising costs without expanded Medicaid.
MARIE VIENNEAU: You can only go so many years in a row where your business doesn't lose
money, before you depreciate to the point that you have to start closing services, decreasing
services, and then access goes away.
SARAH VARNEY: Medicaid advocates, like Maine Equal Justice Partners, are pressuring lawmakers
to put the new law into effect quickly.
WOMAN: The law's on our side.
The facts are on our side.
The reality of people's lives are on our side.
Did I say the law is on our side?
(LAUGHTER)
SARAH VARNEY: Victoria Rodriguez says people like Donna Wall, with her autistic children,
need help quickly.
VICTORIA RODRIGUEZ, Maine Equal Justice Partners: It's really stressful to hear these stories
from people who are literally just one accident away from being buried in medical debt and
their families being devastated by that.
SARAH VARNEY: The group has been receiving postcards from around the country congratulating
them on becoming the 32nd state to expand Medicaid.
WOMAN: So, this one's from Virginia.
"Greetings from Virginia.
Thanks, you all, for your efforts.
The majority of voters in Maine have resounding approved expanding Medicaid for 70,000 low-income
people.
Wahoo!"
SARAH VARNEY: And advocates in many other red states that refused to expand Medicaid
are eying their own ballot measures, including Nebraska, Utah, Idaho, Florida, and Missouri.
Patrick Willard, a senior director at Families USA, a progressive advocacy group based in
Washington, says after years of Republicans attacking the Affordable Care Act, voters
are beginning to shift their views.
PATRICK WILLARD, Families USA: What we have heard is that other states suddenly see an
opportunity now to figure out a way that they can get around legislatures that have been
holding this up.
SARAH VARNEY: As state lawmakers in Maine work out the details of the new law, many
disagree with LePage about how much it will cost.
His administration estimates the price tag will be twice what the legislature's nonpartisan
Fiscal Office has projected.
LePage says, if they can't resolve the impasse, he will take legal action, if necessary.
GOV.
PAUL LEPAGE: We will go to court, because I know -- listen, one thing that I know better
than the legislature is financial responsibility, and I have proven it over the last seven years.
SARAH VARNEY: Advocates say those who are eligible for Medicaid could enroll as early
as this summer.
But if there are delays, they too will sue.
Just days after our interview, Donna Wall fell during her middle-of-the-night paper
route and broke her ankle.
She still doesn't have health insurance and is unsure how she will care for her autistic
children and uncertain what the future will bring.
For the "PBS NewsHour" and Kaiser Health News, I'm Sarah Varney.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Stay with us.
Coming up on the "NewsHour": America Addicted, the impact of opioid epidemic on the nation's
work force; and a Brief But Spectacular take from an interfaith gospel choir.
Candidate Donald Trump pledged to make America great again, and the theme is central to President
Trump's foreign policy.
To discuss how he's doing, we're joined by Elliott Abrams.
He is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and previously served in the State
Department and on the National Security Council staffs during the Reagan and George W. Bush
administrations.
And Gideon Rose is the editor of the journal "Foreign Affairs" and served on the national
security staff during the Clinton administration.
But, first, a look back at key foreign policy moments over the Trump administration's first
year.
DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: From this day forward, it's going to be only
America first, America first.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
HARI SREENIVASAN: From the moment he took the oath of office, President Trump aimed
to shake the world stage and redefine the U.S. role abroad.
DONALD TRUMP: For many decades, we have enriched foreign industry at the expense of American
industry.
We have defended other nation's borders, while refusing to defend our own.
HARI SREENIVASAN: He vowed to extricate the U.S. from wasteful foreign wars, renegotiate
global trade and climate deals, and take a tougher stance on security and immigration.
But an escalating confrontation with North Korea at times overshadowed that agenda.
Sixteen missiles soared from the North in test launches during 2017.
Some apparently had the range to reach the U.S. East Coast.
The new president issued dire warnings.
DONALD TRUMP: They will be met with fire and fury, like the world has never seen.
HARI SREENIVASAN: The U.N. imposed more sanctions.
Kim Jong-un answered with more missiles and nuclear tests, and the war of words grew ever
hotter.
DONALD TRUMP: We will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.
Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime.
HARI SREENIVASAN: He likewise kept pushing to kill the Iran nuclear deal negotiated under
President Obama.
DONALD TRUMP: The Iran deal was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the
United States has ever entered into.
HARI SREENIVASAN: In October, Mr. Trump refused to certify Iran's compliance, despite U.N.
findings to the contrary.
It was left to Congress to enact new sanctions, essentially leaving the Iran deal in place
for now.
The president acted more swiftly his first day in office in withdrawing from the 12-nation
Trans-Pacific Partnership.
But publicly, at least, there was scant progress on striking new trade deals.
The same was true on climate.
In June, the president pulled the U.S. out of the Paris accord to curb greenhouse gases.
DONALD TRUMP: I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Nearly 200 other countries who signed the accord have thus far refused
to renegotiate.
President Trump pressed for better results on defense spending, after he chastised NATO
leaders at a May summit for not shouldering more of the burden.
DONALD TRUMP: NATO members must finally contribute their fair share and meet their financial
obligations.
HARI SREENIVASAN: A month later, the allies promised to boost defense spending.
On another front, Mr. Trump, who once called Afghanistan a huge waste, ramped up the U.S.
military presence there.
In August, he announced he's deploying more troops, and he rejected timetables for withdrawal,
but insisted he wasn't writing a blank check.
DONALD TRUMP: We are not nation-building again.
We are killing terrorists.
HARI SREENIVASAN: The president also claimed credit for a major success story against terror
in the Middle East.
Local forces, backed by U.S. and coalition planes and troops, drove the Islamic State
out of its caliphate in Iraq and parts of Syria.
Syrian forces, with Russian air support, waged a separate campaign.
It all came at a huge cost.
Many residents of Mosul and Raqqa returned to find nothing but rubble, and civilian casualties
ran into the thousands.
In Yemen, the U.S. backed a Saudi-led coalition's air assault on Iranian-backed rebels.
The fighting killed thousands and plunged millions more into starvation and a cholera
epidemic.
But President Trump threw his full support behind the Saudis during a May trip to Riyadh.
DONALD TRUMP: A better future is only possible if your nations drive out the terrorists and
drive out the extremists.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Mr. Trump again went against international concerns in recognizing Jerusalem
as the capital of Israel and announcing plans to move the U.S. Embassy there.
Meanwhile, the world watched the Trump administration's effort to crack down on immigration.
Days after his inauguration, he banned travelers from seven Muslim-majority countries and halted
the arrival of all refugees for three months, before the Supreme Court allowed a third incarnation
to take effect, pending an ultimate decision.
Through it all, the president was dogged by, and emphatically dismissed, the ongoing investigations
into Russian meddling in last year's election and allegations of collusion with the Trump
campaign.
DONALD TRUMP: What has been shown is no collusion, no collusion.
HARI SREENIVASAN: He also sought to build closer ties with Russian President Vladimir
Putin.
But late in the year, a new national security document branded both Russia and China as
threats.
Gideon, let me start with you.
How has our standing in the world changed this year?
GIDEON ROSE, Former Staff Member, National Security Council: Nobody can actually believe
what's going on.
The fact is that, although there have been a lot of foreign policy events and discussions
over the year and a lot of detailed progress in various areas and crises, the real story
is the election of Donald Trump meant that, to the rest of the world, the United States
is sort of threatening to walk off the team and take its ball with it.
And nobody really knows whether that's going to happen, because the president's tweets
and desire to take himself out of the alliance and under -- overturn American foreign policy
hasn't really been backed up by the actions of the U.S. government, but he also is undermining
those actions and sort of stalling things.
So, in the end, it's a little bit like Obamacare.
Trump has tried to overturn American foreign policy, but he found that he couldn't do it,
so instead is sort of not funding it and harping around and nibbling around the edges, trying
to undermine it in place.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Elliott, there was a recent pew poll that said our favorability rating
has kind of dipped from 64 to 49 percent since the election, and 74 percent of the world
has no confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing.
ELLIOTT ABRAMS, Council on Foreign Relations: Well, that's a bad thing, but I think, if
you look at what the president has actually done, he is doing the right thing, particularly
now as the year ends.
We see the enforcement of the Magnitsky Act against Putin.
We see the decision to give lethal weapons to Ukraine, something the previous administration
failed to do.
We see the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital, which I think is the right thing
to do.
We see the U.N. Security Council passing its third unanimous resolution and toughest yet
against North Korea.
So, I think there is actually a lot of progress in the policy.
I think the president is learning on the job, and I think he's taking advice from his advisers.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Gideon, let's start unpacking what Elliott just said kind of region by region.
Let's start with North Korea.
It's a bit of a nuclear powder keg, and it's almost as if the president knew we were going
to have this conversation about him today.
Just earlier this afternoon, he sent out on Twitter a video of Bill Clinton from 23 years
ago talking about North Korea and the framework and disarmament.
And then, in that same tweet, there was Donald Trump 18 years ago talking to Tim Russert,
talking about that the time for action was then.
Does he have a point when he says, listen, all of the presidents and all of the policies
from then until now have not worked in preventing the situation where Kim Jong-un actually has
a nuclear weapon and has now the technology to deliver that as an American city?
GIDEON ROSE: I agree with Elliott that there's been a lot of continuity in actual American
foreign policy.
But I wouldn't attribute that to the president, and I certainly wouldn't say that Trump has
learned on the job or done anything different, because this is no evidence that I have seen
that the president actually understands the details of any policy issue on the agenda
or is actually seriously concerned to advance American interests or global interests, as
opposed to his personal interests or those of his particularly cronies.
With something like North Korea, you have an interesting dynamic going on, in which
ongoing progress in the North Korean weapons programs has triggered a backlash by the United
States and others around North Korea.
We have gotten better sanctions.
This actually is all set up now, possibly, if you had a real State Department and a real
administration, for a deal the next year that wouldn't go for, let's say, denuclearization,
which is not going to happen, because they have been nuclear for 10 years.
What you can have is a freeze that would essentially would stop them from going any further, in
return for our not badgering them further on other kinds of things, and some kind of
deal like that.
But now that you have played the bad cop, you have to have the good cop convert it into
a negotiated settlement.
And the problem is, this administration is all bad cop and no good cop.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Elliott Abrams, what about the rhetoric that the president uses?
Is that helpful?
In the case of Kim Jong-un, he's called him a madman repeatedly.
He's called him little rocket man.
He said that he wouldn't call him short and fat.
But, at the same time, I think, maybe even more importantly, he has publicly admonished
his secretary of state for -- quote -- "wasting his time trying to negotiate with little rocket
man."
ELLIOTT ABRAMS: Well, some of it is unhelpful.
Some of it should be said only behind closed doors.
Some of it, I think, is a mistake and leads some foreign governments to wonder, in the
case of the secretary, you know, should we be dealing with Secretary Tillerson, is he
on his way out, does he have the president's confidence?
That's never a good situation.
I saw that with Secretary Haig when I was in the Reagan administration.
Usually, it doesn't last more than a year or so.
And it's not a good situation for the president, for the secretary, or for the country.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Gideon Rose...
(CROSSTALK)
GIDEON ROSE: But, Elliott, with all due...
HARI SREENIVASAN: Go ahead.
GIDEON ROSE: With all due respect to Elliott, I think the rest of the world is not bound
by the political correctness that the American media has increasingly displayed.
They look at Trump saying, who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?
And they say, hey, we will believe our own eyes.
You say that Nigerians live in huts and Haitians have AIDS and Mexicans are rapists.
You don't understand the alliance.
You don't even seem to have any notion of the liberal international order or partnership.
They're hoping the president doesn't have any control over American foreign policy,
and that the people around him, like Kelly and Mattis and McMaster, are the ones -- and
Tillerson -- are the ones controlling things.
ELLIOTT ABRAMS: If you look at what the president has said, not in tweets, in speeches, his
speech in Seoul, Korea, was a terrific speech that was very popular left, right and center
in Korea.
His speech in Warsaw, I thought, was really quite a good speech.
His policy in Europe, his policy toward NATO now is actually working in getting NATO members
to move up their defense spending toward the 2 percent mark.
So I think this kind of indictment just doesn't reflect the reality of the situation.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Gideon, how about the relationship that the administration is having with, say,
China?
Are our interests being served better?
GIDEON ROSE: Well, it all depends on how you define interests.
The United States has based its policies over the last several years on not just short-term
interest, but long-term interests that happen for a stable international system in which
people can trade, in which the future is secure.
And the biggest problem right now is nobody is certain about what direction American foreign
policy is taking.
And so the short-term tactical moves, there really is no American strategy.
And, frankly, the national security strategy that just came out is a little bit of a hodgepodge.
And with all due respect to Elliott, if you listen to what he said, he said, don't listen
to the tweets, look at the speeches.
I have been taught by people like Elliott Abrams over the decades when looking at Middle
Eastern leaders, you don't look at the big public speeches they give to the world at
large.
You look to what they say to their own people and what they actually do.
Here, we have a weird situation in which the actual American foreign policy has been largely
continuous, but the president's tweets at the top and then their indications on the
side are giving everybody an uncertain feeling, and nobody knows what's happening.
ELLIOTT ABRAMS: In my travels in the Middle East, I find that that's not right.
I find that we have better relations with both the Arab governments and the Israelis
than we did in the Obama administration.
So the notion that, you know, all over the world people have less respect for the president,
the presidency, the country is just an overstatement.
I just don't find that to be true.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Elliott, one of the conservative critiques in the past has been that the Americans
have been leading from behind.
And something Gideon said in the very beginning, he said, well, what if this attitude is, we're
going to take our ball and go away, right?
When the United States pulls away from something like TPP or the Paris climate accords, strategically,
doesn't that give China an advantage and say, hey, you know what, we're going to fill that
gap, we're going to have an alliance in Asia, we're going to go ahead and provide solar
panels to the whole world and become the economic engine of a green industrial revolution?
ELLIOTT ABRAMS: Well, it can in some cases.
I mean, TPP, as you remember, Hillary Clinton said she would have pulled out as well.
On the climate question, that's a different one, I think, that relates to the judgment
of many people in the administration, not just the president, about the American economy.
I think what the president has said that's really critically important is, we can't lead
the way we want to lead, we cannot spend the money we need to spend on defense, which is
required to lead, if we can't build up the American economy.
The basis of our military strength is our economic strength.
And the focus on that, I think, should reassure allies around the world.
China is producing a potential alliance for us of just about every country around China,
because they're afraid of what Chinese leadership might mean.
HARI SREENIVASAN: All right, any final thoughts?
GIDEON ROSE: This past year has been like a movie trailer for the movie "The Post-American
World."
We have seen a one-year preview of what a post-American world would look like.
And everybody is kind of saying, is this going to be the new reality, or are we going to
snap back to something more?
It will be interesting to see what happens.
HARI SREENIVASAN: All right, Gideon Rose, Elliott Abrams, thank you both.
ELLIOTT ABRAMS: Thank you.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Throughout this week, we have reprised our series on the national opioids
crisis, America Addicted.
The focus of the series is how opioids have damaged so many of us in so many ways.
Tonight, economics correspondent Paul Solman reports on the impact of opioid addiction
on our work force and how employers have changed their expectations when hiring.
This story is part of his weekly reporting series, Making Sense.
MICHAEL OATES, Welder: I would wake up in the morning and take four pills and snort
two.
That's just to get out of bed.
PAUL SOLMAN: Michael Oates, a lifelong welder, is recovering from a 10-year opioid addiction
which began when he took Vicodin for pain while working at a steel mill.
Did you lose the job?
MICHAEL OATES: Actually, my job went to China.
And that was my excuse to do even more pills.
PAUL SOLMAN: Have you worked since?
MICHAEL OATES: I have had four or five different jobs since then.
PAUL SOLMAN: And what happened to those jobs?
MICHAEL OATES: I lost them all due to being addicted to opiates.
They would random drug-test me, and I would be like, well, see you later.
I would walk out.
I even got caught one time with synthetic urine in my underwear, because I got pretty
slick at using that, you know?
PAUL SOLMAN: Do you stash it in your underpants?
MICHAEL OATES: I would stash it in my underwear, and I would go in, and it's synthetic urine.
It's got everything in it that you need to make them think it's your urine.
PAUL SOLMAN: Out of work for three years now, Oates is just one example of how the opioid
crisis has decimated the American work force.
Business owner Clyde McClellan has seen plenty of other examples.
CLYDE MCCLELLAN, Owner, American Mug and Stein Company: We have people that come in on a
regular basis looking for employment that are obviously under the influence when they
come in.
PAUL SOLMAN: Really?
You can tell?
CLYDE MCCLELLAN: Oh, yes.
They look like they're the walking dead.
I say, we're going to send you for a drug test, and what is the drug test going to show
us?
Most of the time, if it's pot or booze or anything like that, they tell me.
If it's something other than that, they don't come back.
PAUL SOLMAN: McClellan owns American Mug and Stein in East Liverpool, Ohio, once known
as the pottery capital of the world with dozens of firms.
Foreign competition has since wiped out all but two of them.
McClellan owes his survival to his top customer, Starbucks.
You would think would-be workers in town might be flocking here.
But they're flocking to drug dealers instead.
CLYDE MCCLELLAN: One day, I was looking out of my office in 2015, and there was two policemen
standing in my driveway with rifles.
And I went out.
I knew one of them.
And I said, what's going on?
He said, well, we're raiding this house that's next to your building, and -- for heroin distribution.
PAUL SOLMAN: And these indelible photos of a couple overdosed in their car with their
son in the backseat were snapped just three blocks from here.
You don't need experience to get a job at American Mug and Stein, but you do need to
be clean.
Half of applicants are not.
CLYDE MCCLELLAN: I have been an employer in this area since 1983.
Drugs were not at the forefront when you were talking to somebody about possible employment.
Now the first thing we think of is, are they on drugs?
How do we find out?
What kind of references?
PAUL SOLMAN: Somebody came in here looking for a job with a reference from one of your
other employees?
CLYDE MCCLELLAN: He was using this person as a reference.
And when we asked the employee, he said, he's a dope head.
He steals money.
He has stolen money from me.
Obviously, we didn't bring him in.
PAUL SOLMAN: Donna Dibo has been there.
A full-time waitress, she was prescribed opioids after a car accident.
In time, scoring heroin became her main line of work.
DONNA DIBO, Former Waitress: It is like a job itself, actually.
It is.
PAUL SOLMAN: Just trying to find that day's drugs?
DONNA DIBO: Yes.
And then, once that day is over, your mind's already going 1,000 times a minute, thinking,
what am I going to do for the next day?
PAUL SOLMAN: How long have you been out of the work force?
DONNA DIBO: I have been out of work for about seven years.
PAUL SOLMAN: The prime skill she honed?
Shoplifting.
DONNA DIBO: I would go into all the stores.
My trunk and my backseat would be full with everything.
Sears, I'm no longer allowed on their property.
I stole so much from them, I probably own their store.
PAUL SOLMAN: And then there was her daughter's new cell phone.
DONNA DIBO: We had some people over, and, all of a sudden, it just came up missing.
I made it look like it came up missing.
I am the one, actually, in fact, that did it.
PAUL SOLMAN: You stole it from your daughter and sold it?
DONNA DIBO: Absolutely.
PAUL SOLMAN: Scott Schwind was a well-paid machinist when his addiction took charge.
SCOTT SCHWIND, Machinist: I was just working to supply myself.
I would have people come to my work, deliver stuff to me at work.
PAUL SOLMAN: At the machinist shop?
SCOTT SCHWIND: Yes.
I was on third shift, so they would come at night and bring me stuff.
But that's how I messed the job up, is, I wouldn't show up, or I was doing shady stuff,
like having people come there.
I would be in the bathroom for half-an-hour.
So, I lost that job.
And then I have had other jobs, but I have never been able to keep a job for long because
of the addiction.
PAUL SOLMAN: So, how long have you been out of work now?
SCOTT SCHWIND: Since 2011.
PAUL SOLMAN: Schwind, Oates and Dibo are now sober and enrolled at Flying High, a nonprofit
program in Youngstown, Ohio, to get those out of the work force back in.
It teaches hard skills, like welding and machining.
An urban garden is for soft skills, showing up on time, teamwork.
Jeff Magada says job training is critical to places like Youngstown, its population
down more than 60 percent since its steel furnaces last ran full blast.
JEFFREY MAGADA, Executive Director, Flying High: You don't have a lot of industry coming
here because they know there's not a lot of skilled workers here, and then workers who
can also pass a drug screen.
PAUL SOLMAN: That's a problem for Michael Sherwin's company.
MICHAEL SHERWIN, CEO, Columbiana Boiler Company: We have had positions open for a year-and-a-half
to two years.
PAUL SOLMAN: Sherwin's Columbiana Boiler Company has lots of demand for galvanized containers,
but figures it's foregone some $200,000 in business because he can't find skilled, drug-free
welders.
MICHAEL SHERWIN: We probably lose 20 to 25 percent.
PAUL SOLMAN: Because they can't pass a drug test?
MICHAEL SHERWIN: Mm-hmm.
PAUL SOLMAN: Flying High places ex-addicts in shops like this and pays their salary for
six months.
But the threat of relapse is always there.
That's why Scott Schwind is taking it slow.
SCOTT SCHWIND: I just want to get a foundation of being sober and dealing with things before
I jump into a job and all that stress, and you know what I mean, having a bunch of money
in my pocket, to where I'm not tempted to do something that I'm going to regret, because,
like, the drugs out there today will kill you.
PAUL SOLMAN: Why would you be tempted if you had money in your pocket?
SCOTT SCHWIND: You forget how to deal with problems.
It was a coping mechanism.
Something went wrong, and you're like, I'm just going to get high, and then you don't
have to worry about it.
I had a house, I had a car, I had all my stuff taken care of.
I was a good father, you know what I mean?
And everything's gone.
And it takes a lot of work to get back to where you were.
So, it's easy to just throw your hands up and be like, you know what?
Screw it.
PAUL SOLMAN: So, you could imagine having money in your pocket and going back to drugs?
DONNA DIBO: Absolutely.
Absolutely.
It takes two seconds for us to get a thought in our head, and we act on it.
PAUL SOLMAN: So, technical instructors like Ivan Lipscomb wear two hats.
IVAN LIPSCOMB, Flying High: Not only are we welding instructors, but we're life coaches
also.
So we can try to talk to them about that also, maybe throw in a little joking in there every
once in awhile just to keep their spirits up.
PAUL SOLMAN: Magada says those who complete this program pose much less risk than those
who don't.
JEFFREY MAGADA: We're not just going to let them go.
We're going to monitor them over the next six months, while they have money in their
pocket, and be working with them on those life skills.
PAUL SOLMAN: Life skills absent in those whom opioids have overtaken, says Michael Sherwin.
MICHAEL SHERWIN: Ten years ago, the drug screen wouldn't have been an issue.
PAUL SOLMAN: At all?
MICHAEL SHERWIN: No.
PAUL SOLMAN: And now you're losing 25 percent of...
MICHAEL SHERWIN: Of eligible candidates to it.
So, for us, it's a big deal.
PAUL SOLMAN: A big deal for the broader economy as well, says Princeton economist Alan Krueger.
He's found a direct link between opioid use and out-of-the-work-force Americans.
ALAN KRUEGER, Former Chairman, White House Council of Economic Advisers: For both prime-age
men and prime-age women, the increase in prescriptions over the last 15 years can account for perhaps
20 percent of the drop in labor force participation that we have seen.
PAUL SOLMAN: The rate has been falling for years, as the population ages, says Krueger.
But opioids are increasingly the story, as the participation rate has hit historic lows.
ALAN KRUEGER: We have had a change in medical practices, which has caused the medical profession
to prescribe 3.5 times more opioid medication today than was the case 15 years ago.
I think that's made it harder for some people to keep their jobs and has led them to leave
the labor force.
PAUL SOLMAN: Clyde McClellan has seen it happening in East Liverpool.
CLYDE MCCLELLAN: When you drive around town, you see too many young and middle-aged people
just out during the middle of the day, when, normally, they'd be at work.
If they're out on the streets, many times, they're not looking for work.
They're just out there looking for their next fix.
PAUL SOLMAN: Donna Dibo is on the lookout no longer.
Instead, she's reinventing herself as a welder, Scott Schwind updating his machining skills.
Michael Oates hopes to get back to work welding, and to rebuild the links shattered by his
addiction.
MICHAEL OATES: It tore my family completely apart.
It was stronger than eating.
It was stronger than paying bills.
It was stronger than going to my kids' football games.
I went from spoiling my kids to barely doing anything for my kids.
PAUL SOLMAN: Will they talk to you?
MICHAEL OATES: My youngest doesn't talk to me.
And that breaks my heart.
And my youngest son, he barely ever talks to me.
They went without a lot of things over my selfishness, over me wanting to be high every
day and not wanting to be sick.
PAUL SOLMAN: And they're still resentful?
MICHAEL OATES: And they're still resentful, yes.
If it takes me the rest of my life, I will make amends.
PAUL SOLMAN: Here's hoping he can return to his family, and to the work force.
For the "PBS NewsHour," this is economics correspondent Paul Solman, reporting from
Northeastern Ohio.
HARI SREENIVASAN: Finally, we turn to another installment of our weekly Brief But Spectacular
series.
Tonight, three members of the Oakland Interfaith Gospel Choir.
Founded in 1986, the group performs around the world and includes more than two dozen
people from diverse ethnic, religious, and cultural backgrounds.
TERRANCE KELLY, Oakland Interfaith Gospel Choir: We start the night with a warm up.
I'm a classically trained singer, so I believe that, as a signer, you must warm up before
you get started.
ISA CHU, Oakland Interfaith Gospel Choir: It's what Terrance calls vocal yoga.
(SINGING)
TERRANCE KELLY: Within the Oakland Interfaith Gospel Choir, we have, at last count, about
13 faiths, Christian, Unitarian, agnostic, Jewish, Baha'i, Sufi, Muslim.
Somebody said baseball.
MARY FORD, Oakland Interfaith Gospel Choir: I'm not interested in who people believe in.
I'm interested in how they act and how they are with one another, how they treat one another.
ISA CHU: Interfaith is my faith, I guess, and the openness to different people and different
beliefs.
TERRANCE KELLY: Well, it is sometimes difficult when a song might say Jesus, Jesus, Jesus,
Jesus for possibly a Jew or somebody of the Muslim faith.
But what we decided to do is that when we have Jesus, God, lord, master, you mentally
insert the name of your God, so you can get in there with some true praise.
MARY FORD: In 1988, I was at a fund-raiser in San Francisco.
The Oakland Interfaith Gospel ensemble was singing.
And I heard the choir, and I went, that's it.
That's what I want to do.
TERRANCE KELLY: Gospel music comes from a point of pure love, so when you sing it, it
touches people at bone level.
Bone level means it hits you at your soul.
ISA CHU: Right now, I work as a dispatcher for the Oakland Fire Department.
It's so cathartic to kind of start your week on a Monday with choir rehearsal, knowing
that whatever happens the rest of the week, you have your choir family.
TERRANCE KELLY: Gospel music is a part of the African-American church, which is the
bastion of safety for the African-American.
And it kind of provides that feeling for any and all who take part of it.
MARY FORD: When I tell people I'm in the choir, and they're like, oh, that's nice, you know,
Jesus, uh-huh, uh-huh.
They look at us and they think, what are they going to be able to do together?
They haven't had an experience of all faiths in harmony.
That's what we do.
We get along.
We have different sexual orientations.
We have different economic situations.
We have different colors on our skin.
But we sing together, and we make this beautiful music together.
MARY FORD: My name is Mary Ford.
ISA CHU: My name is Isa Chu.
TERRANCE KELLY: My name is Terrance Kelly.
And this is my Brief But Spectacular take.
MARY FORD: Brief But Spectacular take.
ISA CHU: This is my Brief But Spectacular take on healing through music.
HARI SREENIVASAN: The choir's next performance is in January, part of a tribute to Martin
Luther King, in Oakland, California.
On the "NewsHour" online right now: As neighborhoods develop and gentrify, street art is often
at risk of destruction, and there is often little recourse, legal recourse, for those
who want to preserve culturally important work.
We examine what's at stake.
See the story at PBS.org/NewsHour.
And that's the "NewsHour" for tonight.
On Friday, the year in music.
I'm Hari Sreenivasan.
Join us online and again here tomorrow evening with Mark Shields and David Brooks.
For all of us at the "PBS NewsHour," thank you.
We will see you soon.
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