FOLLOWING AN EXECUTIVE ORDER BY DONALD TRUMP APPARENTLY
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS HAVE DATE 3.2%.
TRUMP HAS ALREADY HAD AN IMPACT ON THE HOUSING MARKET AND
WHAT EXACTLY DID HE DO?
WHAT ACTION DID HE TAKE THE HAD THIS IMPACT?
APPARENTLY DAYS BEFORE OBAMA'S ADMINISTRATION CAME TO AN END,
HE HAD SIGNED AN ORDER INVOLVING FHA LOANS AND THE INSURANCE
THAT HOME PURCHASERS WOULD HAVE TO PAY FOR IF THEY HAVE
THOSE TYPES OF LOANS.
FHA MORTGAGES ARE FOR INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE LOW INCOME
WHO MIGHT NOT HAVE 20% TO PUT DOWN AS A DOWN PAYMENT FOR A NEW
HOME AND SO YOU HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT THESE PEOPLE ARE
INSURED IN CASE THEY DEFAULT AND THEN THE INTEREST TO HELP COVER
THE COST TO THE ORGANIZATIONS THAT MADE THE LOANS.
THAT IS THE WHOLE POINT OF FHA INSURANCE.
OBAMA HAD CUT A LITTLE BIT OF THE PREMIUMS SO PEOPLE WHO
TAKE OUT THESE LOANS AND BY THESE HOMES WOULD BE ABLE
TO PAY FOR IT.
THEY WOULD BE LESS LIKELY TO DEFAULT.
TRUMP COMES IN OFFICE AND HE IS LIKE NO.
SUSPENDING THIS INDEFINITELY.
IT WAS SUPPOSED TO SAVE PEOPLE ABOUT $500 A YEAR IF THEIR
MORTGAGE WAS ABOUT $200,000 AND OF COURSE, IT WOULD SAVE YOU
MORE IF YOUR MORTGAGE WAS WORTH MORE BUT NOW BECAUSE OF THE FACT
THAT THIS FEE DECREASE HAS BEEN HALTED, TAKEN AWAY BY THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION LESS PEOPLE ARE ABLE TO BUY HOMES.
GIVE YOU MORE DETAILS.
TOTAL MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS FELL 3.2%
ON A SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BASIS FROM PREVIOUS WEEK
ACCORDING TO MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION.
VOLUME WAS 18% LOWER THAN THE SAME WEEK ONE YEAR AGO.
MOST NOTABLE WAS A 13%
DROP IN FHA APPLICATIONS, A DIRECT RESULT OF THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION REVERSING A CUT IN THE FHA'S ANNUAL
MORTGAGE INSURANCE PREMIUM JUST HOURS AFTER THE INAUGURATION.
TO BE CLEAR, THAT FEE CUT WASN'T GOING TO COME INTO EFFECT
UNTIL JANUARY 27.
SO PEOPLE DID NOT EVEN FEEL THE BENEFIT OF THIS NEW POLICY
BECAUSE IT NEVER TOOK AFFECT BUT IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO
KEEP IN MIND THAT PEOPLE THOUGHT OKAY, MAYBE NOW I CAN
AFFORD A HOME SO LET ME APPLY.
NOW IT SEEMS LIKE PEOPLE HAVE BACKED OUT OF IT OR THE
NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO WOULD APPLY ARE DOING SO.
IT'S ACTUALLY A REALLY LARGE EFFECT, LARGER THAN A ONE
OF EXPECTED.
I DON'T KNOW IF IT TOOK THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION BY SURPRISE
TOO, BECAUSE THEY ACT SO QUICK WITHOUT REALLY INVESTIGATING
THINGS THAT IT IS POSSIBLE THEY ARE LIKE DIDN'T SEE THAT COMING.
BUT THE FIRST THING I THOUGHT WHEN I SAW THE STORY WAS I
WONDER WHICH ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS GOING TO GET RICH
OFF OF THIS?
YOU HAVE TO GET SOMETHING I GUESS IN FULL CONTEXT
BECAUSE WHAT IS THE WHOLE POINT OF THIS INSURANCE?
IT IS MEANT TO PROTECT HOMEOWNERS OR ACTUALLY
PROTECT THE LENDERS WHO GAVE OUT THE LOANS TO HOMEOWNERS WHO
DEFAULTED.
THE ARGUMENT THAT TRUMP'S ADMINISTRATION IS MAKING IS
LOOK, WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT THE FUNDS FOR THIS
INSURANCE ARE THERE.
IN CASE A NUMBER OF PEOPLE DEFAULT, WE HAVE THE MONEY
NECESSARY TO PAY THESE LENDERS BACK.
WHAT IS INTERESTING IS I DON'T SEE ANY DATA INDICATING
THAT THEY ARE LOW ON FUNDS.
THEY HAVE TO REALLY MAKE THAT CASE AND THEY HAVEN'T BUT
HERE'S THE THING, I AM ACTUALLY MIXED ON THIS.
THE MORE I READ ABOUT IT, I AM MIXED ON IT.
FIRST OF ALL, LENDERS HAVE LOOSENED THEIR STANDARDS CONSIDERABLY SO
THERE ARE MORE ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGES BEING GIVEN OUT TO
PEOPLE WHO QUITE HONESTLY HAVE NO BUSINESS HAVING MORTGAGES.
I THINK HAVING THIS INSURANCE IN PLACE IS IMPORTANT AND I DO
WANT TO MAKE SURE IT IS PROPERLY FUNDED.
BY THE WAY $500,
IF IT'S ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD FOR YOU IN TERMS OF
WHETHER OR NOT YOU CAN AFFORD A HOME, YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE A HOME.
OR AT LEAST YOU SHOULDN'T TAKE OUT THAT LOAN.
IíM KEEPING
IT REAL WITH YOU.
ESPECIALLY IN THE $200,000
RANGE.
IF THAT'S A MAKE OR BREAK FOR YOU.
THAT'S WHY THOUGHT THE EFFECT WAS SURPRISINGLY LARGE.
I HEAR YOU ON THAT.
IT MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE GOOD BUT BY THE WAY, HOW DARE YOU BE
ON THE FENCE ON A TRUMP STORY?
WE ARE ALWAYS AGAINST TRUMP NO MATTER WHAT HE DOES.
IT'S INTERESTING WE TAKE ALL OF HIS PROPOSALS AND JUDGE
THEM ON THE MERITS.
OUR CONTEXT IS FORMED BY EXPERIENCE.
IT APPEARS NO ONE BENEFITS FROM THIS.
IT IS HURTING THE
MARKETS AND I WONDER HOW THEY WILL REACT TO THAT.
USUALLY IT IS BECAUSE SOMEBODY ASKED ESPECIALLY BECAUSE
THEY HAVE DONE NO ANALYSIS.
THEY'VE ONLY BEEN IN OFFICE FOR A WEEK AND A HALF.
IT IS
NOT LIKE HE SAID GO CRUNCH THE NUMBERS AND LET'S SEE HOW
MUCH THEY ACTUALLY NEED IN THIS INSURANCE.
NO, SOMEBODY HAD US A SPECIFIC ASCUS AND AS THEY WERE IN
OFFICE TO DO THIS SO YOU DO THAT EITHER FOR A POLITICAL
AGENDA AND THAT IS A LITTLE UNCLEAR HERE OR YOU DO IT
BECAUSE I WAS KIDDING ABOUT THE ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS
PARTLY MAINLY BECAUSE A DONOR ASKED YOU.
AND A DONOR AS SOON AS YOU GET IN OFFICE HAVE A LONG
LAUNDRY LIST OF REQUESTS AND SO WHO KNOWS?
I DON'T KNOW IF SOMEONE WAS BETTING AGAINST THE
MORTGAGE OR MAYBE IT HAD A CONSEQUENCE THEY DIDN'T
INTEND BUT SOMEBODY ASKED FOR THIS AND THEY GOT IT AND
THEN MAYBE THEY GOT A LITTLE MORE THAN THEY BARGAINED FOR.
AGAIN, THIS IS BASED ON MY ANALYSIS AND MY SPECULATION
DIE COULD BE WRONG ABOUT THIS I WANT YOU TO TAKE IT WITH A
GRAIN OF SALT BUT BASED ON WHAT I AM SEEING IN THE HOUSING
MARKET, YOU SEE THE LENDERS GIVING OUT RISKY LOANS AND
THEN HOW ARE THESE LENDERS GOING TO BE PROTECTED IF THESE
INDIVIDUALS DEFAULT?
YOU HAVE THIS INSURANCE PROGRAM THAT WILL COVER THEIR COSTS.
YOU GIVE OUT THE RISKY LOANS, EVENTUALLY IF THEY DO FALL,
YOU DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT IT BECAUSE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
IS GOING TO COME IN AND THEY'RE GOING TO COVER YOUR COSTS.
THAT IS THE THING THAT I HAVE IN THE BACK OF MY MIND.
HERE IS SOMETHING I THINK EVERYONE NEEDS TO PAY
ATTENTION TO WHEN IT COMES TO THE HOUSING MARKET.
1ST OF ALL, HOW HOME PRICES ARE INSANE OUTSIDE IN SOME
MARKET, THEY ARE MORE EXPENSIVE THAN THEY WERE IN 2007.
WITHOUT HAPPEN?
WAGES HAVE AN IMPROVED THAT MUCH.
HOW ARE THEY SLINGING HOUSES LEFT AND RIGHT?
WHY ARE THEY SO EXPENSIVE.
HERE'S WHAT IS GOING ON.
LARGE US BANKS RAISED THEIR OWN RISKS BY PURCHASING, I'M
SORRY, PUSHING DOWN LENDING STANDARDS FOR A FOURTH
CONSECUTIVE YEAR IN 2016.
LOOKING AT 90% OF THE DEBT IN THE FEDERAL BANKING SYSTEM
EQUAL TO $5.2 TRILLION THE OCC FOUND THAT BANKS ARE EASING
STANDARDS BECAUSE OF COMPETITION FROM OTHER BANKS AND
NONFINANCIAL FIRMS, THEIR APPETITE FOR RISK IS
EXPANDING, AND THEY ARE SEEKING TO MAKE MORE LOANS.
WHILE THIS MOVEMENT IS CONSISTENT WITH PAST CREDIT
CYCLES AT A SIMILAR STAGE, CREDIT RISK IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AT THE TRENDS WE SEE TODAY CONTINUE.
AGAIN, YEAR AFTER YEAR THEY LOOSEN THEIR STANDARDS AND
THAT IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN TRYING TO WARN EVERYONE ABOUT WHEN
IT COMES TO SUBPRIME MORTGAGES.
THEY BEEN THEY ARE BEING GIVEN OUT TO INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE
NO BUSINESS HAVING THESE LOANS.
BEEN SAYING THAT FOR A LONG TIME.
TRUMP IS BEEN WATCHING AND HE'S LIKE YOU KNOW WHAT, THEY
HAVE BEEN LOOSENING THEIR STANDARDS I THINK ANA IS
RIGHT THAT AS I LOOK AT THAT, WHEN BANKERS INCREASE THEIR
APPETITE FOR RISK, WATCH OUT.
HERE COMES THE BUBBLE OVER THOSE FOUR YEARS.
THERE MAKING IT LARGER AND LARGER.
CONSERVATIVES AND PROGRESSIVES SHOULD AGREE ON THIS.
I DON'T KNOW WHY, I DON'T KNOW WHY THE GOVERNMENT BACKS UP
SOME OF THOSE LOANS AND YOU HAVE TO HAVE STABILITY IN THE
FINANCIAL MARKETS, BUT WHEN THEY GO TO AN EXTREME WHICH
HAPPENS FAR TOO OFTEN AND MIGHT BE HAPPENING AGAIN WHERE
THEY ARE LIKE, GO AHEAD, LOAN THINGS OUT AND IF
THINGS GO POORLY, WE WILL PICK UP THE TAB.
WHY?
WHY SHOULD THE GOVERNMENT PICK UP THE TAB IF YOU
MISCALCULATED YOUR RISK?
WHY SHOULD THE GAINS GO TO YOU BUT ALL THE COSTS GO TO US?
IF YOU ARE CONSERVATIVE OR PROGRESSIVE TAXPAYER, YOU
SHOULD HATE THAT AND WE DO.
NONETHELESS, BOTH
REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS VOTED FOR THE BAILOUT.
IF TRUMP ACTUALLY CARES ABOUT PRINCIPLE AND IS GOING IN
THE RIGHT DIRECTION NOW BECAUSE OF THAT, GREAT.
I HAVE TO BE HONEST WITH YOU, I AM SUPER SKEPTICAL BECAUSE
OF THE SPEED AT WHICH IT CAME, THE LEVEL OF DETAIL THAT
TRUMP DOES NOT HAVE ON POLICY.
THERE WAS SOMEBODY WHO ASKED FOR THIS AND WE DON'T KNOW WHY.
BY THE WAY, IF IT TURNS OUT IT IS THE RIGHT POLICY, GREAT.
THEN WHO CARES WHO ASKED FOR IT?
JUST A NOTE OF CAUTION ON WHERE IT CAME FROM AND WHAT THEY
MIGHT BE LOOKING FOR.
BY THE WAY, THEY WANT TO REPEAL DODD-FRANK.
THE MARKET IS GOING TO CRASH.
THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.
I AM JUST GIVING YOU THAT WARNING.
NOW YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
NOT TRUMP WATCHING THIS GOES NO, MARKET IS GOING TO CRASH.
SAD.
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