>>> AND YOU KNOW I TELL THIS ALL THE TIME, THE WORD
UNPREDICTABLE. WE HAVE TO BE UNPREDICTABLE,
FOLKS. OUR MILITARY -- UNPREDICTABLE.
OBAMA GETS UP, WE WILL LEAVE IRAQ, AND HE GIVES A DAY.
WE ARE GOING TO HAVE AN UNPREDICTABLE.
I GET CRITICIZED BECAUSE I SAY UNPREDICTABLE.
THE ENEMY TURNS OUT TO BE TEN T TIMES TOUGHER THAN WE THOUGHT
BECAUSE THEY KNOW OUR PLAN. WE HAVE TO BE UNPREDICTABLE
FOLKS. WE HAVE TO BE UNPREDICT.
WE ARE TOO PREDICTABLE. >> DON'T YOU LONG FOR THOSE DAYS
OF THE CAMPAIGN. WELCOME BACK TO "THE 11th HOUR."
AS YOU JUST SAW SPECIFICALLY ON FOREIGN POLICY, USE OF MILITARY
OVERSEAS, CANDIDATE TRUMP PROMISED MORE THAN ONCE TO BE
UNPREDICT LK. WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY SEAN
SPICER'S VERSION OF THE SAME THING, QUOTE, WE ARE NOT GOING
TO TELEGRAPH WHAT WE'RE GOING DO MAYBE USED ON A POST OF FOREIGN
POLICYISH ICE OVER THESE LAST 12 WEEKS INCLUDING JUST THIS LAST
TUESDAY WHEN HE WAS TALKING ABOUT NORTH KOREA.
>> THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN VERY CLEAR WHEN HE IS NEGOTIATING OR
DEALING WITH AN ISSUE YOU DON'T TELEGRAPH TO PEOPLE HOW YOU ARE
GOING TO HANDLE IT. WE DON'T TELEGRAPH WHAT WE'RE
GOING TO DO. I THINK HE HAS BEEN CLEAR HE
WILL NOT TOLERATE SOME OF THIS ACTION BY NORTH KOREA.
BUT TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, I THINK I HAVE SAID THIS BEFORE ON
A VARIETY OF TOPIC. THE PRESIDENT IS NOT ONE WHO IS
GOING TO GO OUT THERE AND TELEGRAPH HIS RESPONSE.
I THINK HE KEEPS ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE.
HE KEEPS HIS CARDS CLOSE TO THE VEST.
>> THE SAME DAY THAT WAS SAID, THE PRESIDENT SAID ON TWITTER,
QUOTE, NORTH KOREA IS LOOKING FOR TROUBLE.
IF CHINA DECIDES TO HELP THAT WOULD BE GREAT.
IF NOT, WE WILL SOLVE THE PROBLEM WITHOUT THEM.
U.S.A. WE'RE BACK WITH AMBASSADOR NANCY
SODERBERG, GORAN CHANG AND BARRY McCAFFERY.
AMBASSADOR, IS UNPREDICTABLE A FOREIGN POLICY?
>> NO IN PARTICULAR THE SYRIA STRIKE HAS BROAD SUPPORT.
NO ONE KNOWS WHETHER THERE IS A PLAN TO BACK IT IS UP OF IT'S
FINE TO BE UNPREDICTABLE AND NOT SHOW YOUR CARDS BUT YOU HAVE TO
HAVE A PLAN. I THINK THAT'S THE QUESTION WITH
THIS PRESIDENT, WHAT GOES WITH THESE ACTIONS, MILITARY ACTIONS
ALONE DON'T WORK. YOU HAVE TO MARRY FORCE AND
DIPLOMACY, THAT'S THE PRESCRIPTION FOR SUCCESS.
HE HAS TIME TO DO IT. ON NORTH KOREA HE ASKED FOR
OPTIONS THE FULL RANGE OF OPTIONS I THINK HE NEEDS TO HAVE
A DELIBERATE DISCUSSION OF THOSE AND A PLAN.
HE CAN KEEP HIS CARDS TO HIS VEST, BUT WHAT'S CAUSING SOME
CONCERN AMONG FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS IS IS NOT A LOT OF
ASSURANCES THERE IS REAL STRATEGY THAT'S GOING WITH SOME
OF THESE MILITARY ACTION. HE HAS TIME TO GET THEM BUT WE
WANT TO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE ON THE PLANNING SIDE TO ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THESE ACTIONS. >> DAVID, AMERICANS HEARD HIM
SAY WHO KNEW HEALTH CARE WAS THIS COMPLICATED?
THE WORLD HEARD HIM SAY ABOUT CHINA AND NORTH KOREA, IT'S NOT
SO EASY. IT'S NOT WHAT YOU'D THINK.
HE WAS BRIEFED ON THAT HISTORY BY THE PRESIDENT OF CHINA.
MY QUESTION TO YOU IS, HOW MUCH -- AND WE TALKED ABOUT THIS
WITH ANDREA MITCHELL A LITTLE BIT -- HOW MUCH OF THE MECHANISM
OF FOREIGN POLICY -- THE STATE DEPARTMENT, IS NOT THERE, IT'S
MISSING. >> MOST OF IT IS MISSING.
THE ONLY CONFIRMED PERSONAL AT THE STATE DEPARTMENT RIGHT NOW
IS THE SECRETARY OF STATE AND A HOLEOVER, TOM SHANNON WHO HAS
BEEN ACTING AS THE UNDERSECRETARY.
THE REST OF THE ASSISTANT SECRETARIES, UNDERSECRETARIES,
ALL THAT EXPERTISE IS NOT THERE. CAREER PEOPLE ARE THERE.
IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH THEY ARE BEING LISTENED TO.
I WANTED TO RELATE BACK THOUGH TO THE QUESTION OF
UNPREDICTABILITY WHEN IT COMES TO NORTH KOREA.
YES, YOU WANT TO BE UNPREDICTABLE WITH YOUR
ADVERSARIES, AND YOU WANT TO BE HIGHLY PREDICTABLE TO YOUR
ALLIES. AND IT'S THE UNPREDICTABILITY
THAT IS SO WORING RIGHT NOW TO THE SOUTH KOREANS AND THE
JAPANESE. BECAUSE THE NORTH KOREANS DON'T
HAVE A MISSILE YET THAT CAN REACH THE UNITED STATES.
THEY ARE WORKING ON IT BUT THEY DON'T HAVE IT.
THEY HAVE PLENTY THAT CAN REACH SOUTH KOREA AND THAT CAN REACH
JAPAN, AND OUR TROOPS THERE. AND OF COURSE THEY HAVE
ARTILLERY BATTERIES THAT GENERAL McCAFFERY CAN DESCRIBE BETTER
THAN I CAN THAT ARE JUST OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DMZ AND
THEY COULD WIPE OUT SEOUL WITHOUT USING ANY NUCLEAR
WEAPONS AT ALL. SO THE SOUTH KOREANS ARE SAYING
TO PRESIDENT TRUMP, HEY, SLOW DOWN, BECAUSE ANY DECISION YOU
MAKE IS -- COULD END UP BEING TAKEN OUT ON US.
NOW I'VE BEEN TOLD IN RECENT DAYS, INCLUDING TODAY, THAT EVEN
IF THEY DO A NUCLEAR TEST IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE AMERICANS
PROBABLY WILL NOT RESPOND IN A MILITARY MANNER.
THEY WILL USE THE METHOD -- THEY WILL USE THE MOMENT TO TRY TO
TRULY CLAMP DOWN ON NORTH KOREA'S ECONOMY OR WHAT'S LEFT
OF IT, WHICH IS MOSTLY THROUGH CHINA AS WE'VE DISCUSSED.
AND THEY MAY ALSO INCREASE THEIR ANTI-MISSILE CAPABILITY THERE,
WHICH -- THE FLEET IS MOVING UP. IT HAS SOME AGIS CRUISERS ON IT
AS WELL. I DON'T THINK YOU ARE GOING TO
SEE AN IMMEDIATE MOVE BECAUSE IT'S AS GORDON SAID NOT AS EASY
AS DROPPING THE MOTHER OF ALL BOMBS IN A REMOTE PART OF A
DISTANT LAND. >> GORDON, WHAT WORRIES YOU
TONIGHT? >> I GUESS THERE ARE
IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE PARTIES INVOLVED, UNITED
STATES, CHINA, NORTH KOREA. AND AS YOU HAVE THE SOUTH
KOREANS ARE IN A STATE OF POLITICAL FLUX WITH THE
IMPEACHMENT CRISIS. THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE A
BY-ELECTION ON MAY 9th. THAT GIVES KIM JONG-UN THE NORTH
KOREAN LEADER MAYBE AN OPENING TO CAUSE TROUBLE IN A
NON-KINETIC WAY. IT'S GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT
FOR THE UNITED STATES TO RESPOND.
AND YOU KNOW, ESSENTIALLY, THIS -- FOUR YEARS FROM NOW THE
NORTH KOREANS WILL HAVE A MISSILE THAT WILL REACH THE
LOWER 48 STATES. IT WILL HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON AT
THE TIP OF IT. THAT'S NOT VERY LONG AND WE
DON'T HAVE VERY MUCH TIME TO FIGURE THAT OUT.
>> GENERAL McCAFFERY, YOU GET THE LAST WORD.
GOD FORBID IT EVER BECOMES GERMANE TO OUR CONVERSATION BUT
REMIND THE FOLKS WATCHING AT HOME, WHAT DO WE MEAN WHEN WE
SAY A CARRIER BATTLE GROUP. HOW MUCH DEFENSIVE FIRE POWER IS
INCLUDED IN WHAT IS NOW 300, 400 MILES OFF THE COAST?
>> A CARRIER STRIKE GROUP HAS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF FIRE
POWER TO CARRY OUT A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE TO TRY TO GET AT SOME OF
THE NUKE DEVICE. A LOT OF WEAPONS IN SOUTH KOREA
WITH THE SOUTH KOREAN ARMY AND OUR OWN FORCES.
THERE IS B-52s BACKING ALL THIS UP ON GUAM.
I THINK THIS LEADS US IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.
WE ARE NOT GOING TO CONDUCT A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE ON NORTH KOREA
TO GO AFTER THEIR NUKES THIS WEEKEND.
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. THE SOUTH KOREANS WILL NOT SIGN
OFF ON IT. IT WOULD BE A DISASTER.
BY THE WAY, BRIAN, WE KNOW WE CAN TAKE APART THE NORTH KOREAN
ARMED FORCES PROBABLY IN 180 DAYS.
IT'S PRIMITIVE. THE AIRPOWER IS ZERO.
THE NAVY -- WE'VE GOT TO GET THEIR SUBS BEFORE THEY GET OUT
OF PORT BUT BASICALLY IT IS AN EASY JOB.
BUT IT IS A HUMANITARIAN DISASTER IN SOUTH KOREA AND
PROBABLY WOULD INCLUDE ENGAGING JAPAN.
SO THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IS THE
NORTH KOREANS ARE NOT GIVING UP THEIR NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
SO WE'VE GOT DIPLOMATIC, ECONOMIC LEVERAGE, COVERT
ACTION, AND WE BETTER BUILD A SERIOUS BALLISTIC MISSILE
DEFENSE SYSTEM IN THE REGION. AND I THINK A LOT OF THAT IS
UNDERWAY.
THAAD IS GOING IN NOW. PAC 3 PATRIOT MISSILE IS THERE.
NAVY A
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