so you're trading on Betfair and one of the questions that people always ask me
is are the markets easier to trade than they were 10 20 years ago is the market
more efficient now or less efficient if I'm trading on Betfair what can I expect
is the market harder or easier and that's what I'm going to talk about in
this video please like and comment on the video below that will allow me to
produce better quality videos and more of them in the future if you're
interested in learning to trade successfully in sports then why not
visit the BET angel' Academy where we have more detailed videos so if you ask
me are the markets more efficient nowadays I can say to you yes and no
because curiously the markets um have evolved as you'd expect over time but
that evolution very often reaches a fork in the road where they take a divergent
paths and we have this curious situation particularly in the racing market at the
moment but also you know it's it's appearing elsewhere in other markets
well the markets more efficient than it's ever been but simultaneously less
efficient and it's gonna take a bit of explaining to talk you through exactly
why that is the case now it's not a theory it's not a thought it's a fact
I've studied it and analyzed it because one of the important things for me is
one of the reasons I've been around for so long is if you come to a market and
you deploy a strategy that stretched she may work you may just fluke it you may
find something that works for you or you are able to work with and and you know
that's great but the problem is the market does shift and change over time
so I don't know how many full-time professional traders in inverted commas
now I've met or seen over the years who've come done well for a short period
of time they lose their edge and then they vanish so it's always been really
important to me not only do I have a strategy but I can actively describe it
because that allows me to understand what's going on in the market and if the
market shifts slightly then I'll adjust strategy I had this last week with
greyhounds or maybe two weeks ago the strategy I was using on that it just
suddenly seems to be much more negative so because I had to research they
understood how the strategy worked I just tweaked it and then turned it
around back in the other direction so somebody something responded to me being
in the market so I responded to them and the game of cat-and-mouse continues and
that's what you tend to find over a long period of time that is the process that
continues so to shortcut the video for people who just want to turn up watch
the video for two minutes and go away with a bit of information the market is
in isn't more efficient if that makes sense basically what's happened over a
long period of time is the book over round has shrunk dramatically to a very
very small percentage but the volatility in the market has increased so if that's
the information that you're looking for on this video there it is but if you
want a full explanation that's what I'm gonna do next so there are two key
components to what I'm seeing in the market you know you expect the markets
to progress over time so as I just mentioned in the previous comment I see
something shift in the market so I shift my strategy to account for that so when
that happens somebody may shift somewhere else and then you shift again
the best example I can give you of this or the best analogy is say you're at a
concert and you want to have a good look at the stage if you stand up on your
toes then the person behind you has to stand up on their toes and so eventually
it ripples all the way back and the effect is sort of nullified to some
extent because nobody particularly gets an advantage so behavior is dictated by
the person at the front of the stage now the person at the front of the stage in
most of these situations isn't the intermediary so a fit fair tweak
something to do with the system and they have tweaked a lot over the many years
nobody's ever really done a video or blog post and explained it but where the
exchange is now compared to where it was many many years ago is completely
different so stuff used to be to do then you definitely can't do now but when you
start looking and mourning the loss of opportunities think back to when I
started there was nobody in the market so it was a bit like running naked
across an open field you know you felt a certain sense of freedom with the early
markets and there seems to be plenty of fruit to eat everywhere
but the problem is the ice I was gonna say there isn't plenty of fruit because
basically you roam across this field and there isn't much fruit but the fruit is
very easy to get yeah yeah you're getting the low-hanging fruit it's very
you know you roam across the field and you find a tree you pick off the fruit
and it's lovely and juicy and new but there just aren't many of them because
of course if you eat all of the fruits then no more trees grow so you know you
eat some fruit and you plant the seeds for others and and then sure enough more
trees grow but as more trees grow and your little patch of land becomes more
fertile then the competition increases and then suddenly it's not possible to
get all of low-hanging fruit because there are so many people looking for the
low-hanging fruit so you have to climb up a bit and get other fruit and that's
how the market evolved so when I turned up on Betfair all those years ago there
are plenty of opportunities but no money now there's much more money and many
more opportunities but it's a bit more competitive to get hold of that money
however if you look at the video that I did which I will append to this video
about half a trillion in numbers this was explaining to all of the big markets
that you see on Betfair and what's happened over time is you tend to find
yourself going into a niche and then exploiting that niche particularly well
so yeah you know there's enormous amounts of money now billions and
billions and billions of pounds flowing through the sports markets and you're
not concerned with like being master all the fields the to pave you just want a
little bit of that activity you may have a particular tree that you like and the
fruit is good and you know where to find it and and so on so yeah you know the
opportunity has changed very easy but no money around in in the very very old
days a bit harder now but not within particular niches and there's an
enormous amount of money there but the enormous amount of money does bring
competition but as I've explained in other videos there are many ways to get
an edge within the market but the interesting thing about that growth in
the amount of money is its and that competition is its brought the book over
round down so the book over round used to be at a hundred and five hundred and
ten percent when I first started looking at the
markets and it's shrunk to pretty much a hundred percent now so if you don't know
what the book over round is the book over round is basically the sum of all
of the odds that you see on the screen so say we have a two runner market and
both runners have placed at odds of two what does that mean that is a hundred
percent book so the book over round basically is the implied probability
behind those odds so if we have odds of two we do 1/2 that equals 0.5 so that
0.5 is saying to us there's a 50% chance that that particular selection will go
on to win that event so if you have a 2 runner market with two runners at odds
of two then you add up those two and that equals 100% 100% is the over rounds
that's the chance that any one of those two selections has have going on to win
that particular event so with two runners or two it's a hundred percent
there's 100% chance that one of those two runners will go on or one of those
two selections will go on to win that particular event whatever that event may
be it could be a tennis match could be a snooker match could be a horse race it
could be anything absurd the book over around you will actually see if you go
on to bet angel and you look at the book over and you'll see the one click screen
and there's a percentage number at the top that's the book over round it's
available on the ladder it's available on and the bet fair website right it
used to be I don't know if it has because I haven't looked recently but
most websites most exchanges do have the book over and if you go to a bookmaker
during the Grand National they will quote you a hundred and fifty percent
book so when you put money down with them you're gonna lose 50 percent of a
straightaway if you look at the exchange nowadays though you can get a super
competitive twenty-eight runner handicap a tasket and the book over and will be
virtually zero it will be at around 100 percent if the book overrun is at 5
percent then you have a theoretical 5 percent loss over the long term ten
percent and so on so at zero at 100 percent there is a zero margin to the
other side of the book so yeah what's happened over many years is the overall
percentage has come down and come down and what the reason that that has
happened is the over round shrinks as prices get more competitive so if you
have a somebody in the book at 16 and you go into the market and off six
and a half that knocks a small percentage off of the herb around and if
somebody's offering it too and you go in and push that price out and offer at
2:02 the overrun shrinks again so over many many years the over round has gone
from a very high number to a much much smaller one so the market is
fantastically priced now now of course there's Commission to take account of
but if you Dutch more than one runner then the Commission becomes less of an
issue I'm going to have to explain in another video if you want me to comment
below but the basically in an efficient market with the overrun near 100% if you
back more than one runner in other words you use dutching then the Commission
calculation works out a little bit differently but fundamentally speaking
when you back or lay at around a hundred percent then you're getting fantastic
value for money and this is where exchanges beat bookmakers hands down
because that over round is very very tiny and there are other complications
with the calculating Commission and again I won't go into it but if you if
you think that you're paying five percent commission you're probably
paying much less but it all depends on your strike rate and the strategy of the
years again if you're interested in that comment and I will elaborate for you so
yeah the over round has shrunk over time and the reason the over round has shrunk
is because the number of the amount of odds that they compacted the competition
for offering better odds has got bigger and bigger so you can bet into a near
hundred percent book so I have an automated dutching strategy it just runs
across the market it looks for suitable characteristics within the market and
then it places a bet on several different runners but and this is where
Bettinger is really useful it only does that if the book over round is a hundred
percent or less now because of cross matching it generally isn't less than a
hundred percent but it's trying to time its betting into the market when the
market is at it absolute most efficient and that works really well for me over a
long period of time because what I'm saying is before Commission my bet is
really not going to lose much money to the other side of the book now if you
look at the over round on one side you've got the back over and on the
other side you've got the layer around and the difference between the two is
the spreads between the two prices that you see up and down the book so it's the
margin you lose to the backers or the margin you lose to the lair but of
course you can pitch your position into the market when if you're using
automation or a servant when the book is only out a hundred percent which gives
you certain levels of guarantees over the very long term so yeah the OVA round
has shrunk the market is getting more and more efficient but the amount of
margin is being lost to the other side of the book basically is what this means
is very very small so if you're on the other side of book trying to make margin
you're probably making much less margin than you ever have in your entire
betting exchange career because the overruns now are absolutely tiny but
it's great for people on the other side of the book so I didn't think a few
years ago I'd be pursuing betting strategies but the overruns so tiny and
them and the markets so efficient that that is actually pretty viable for me so
yeah you know you can the the chance squeezing a profit out of betting
strategies is much higher than it has ever been
but the funny thing about it is while the over round is coming down and
getting smaller and smaller volatility is going in the other direction so if
you go back ten years ago you could stick a tenner on a football team go out
walk the dog and have some tea have a shower fix the back door come
back and you know probably the price would be exactly the same as it is now
but the market is much more twitchy than it ever has been and as a consequence
the average traded range which used to be here is much bigger now I could
quantify the exact numbers for you but I'm not going to do that in the video
because that would be dull and boring but the most important thing to realize
is that the average traded range on most sports is getting bigger and in
particular this is happening on racing quite a lot as well so you tends to find
that when you're looking at certain types of races they're much more likely
to move much further than they ever did but if you think about it this is this
is unusual this is odd because you can back it very very competitive prices now
and the overrun is absolutely tiny but the average range that they're trading
at is pretty huge so if you think about it logically the average range is here
and you managed to get your backorder in it
and of that range which is where trading sort of comes in but this also applies
to betting strategies but then you can get really really good value because
then the price that our sinks back in the other direction but because you
gotta is such a large price you're going to benefit from that but it works the
other way as well you know you can lay out lower prices at the bottom end of
that traded range and it's just that average traded range that is getting a
little bit bigger now I can't specifically explain why that is and
maybe it's just more traders in the market maybe it's the way that they're
fair have changed the exchange and the way the BET matching process works on
the exchange maybe that's encouraging that increased in volatility but it's
funny because a market that has a traded range like this where you know that the
average price is here and isn't particularly efficient however if you
look at the book over and that's collapsed to a very small value so the
market is efficient so you have this strange dichotomy where the market is
actually super efficient from a bookmaking perspective and offers very
very competitive prices but those prices are more volatile than they've ever been
and so the range of prices that you can choose is quite wide but from a betting
and trading perspective the interesting thing is that small book percentage and
the large volatility actually gives you the opportunity of getting value prices
much more than you ever have done so in the past whereas when you whined back to
the very start of the market the book percentage was very high so the edge
again she was quite large and the average traded range was low so he
really found it difficult to get something on at a suitable price but now
I actually think that the opportunity is pretty wide for you to be able to do
that and in fact it's brought betting strategies to the fore in terms of being
able to find some value from there because very often you see the price on
things just flying off all over the place and you're just sort of thinking
well what happened there that makes no sense and you'll often see me saying
this on on the blog I'll just say this has been backed too far now I'm saying
that from a promote from a double perspective because from a training
perspective it probably isn't gonna go any further but also and if it does go
further it's probably a value lay and the same if something drifts you know
you've probably be got an opportunity from there so yeah strange dichotomy but
this is sort of where we've ended up after a number of years the markets more
efficient but less efficient at exactly the same
time it's an oddity or within the market but it's a fact the book over end is
smaller than it's ever been the volatility is much higher
you
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