♪♪
>>> WELCOME TO "POTUS 2017"
WHERE WE KEEP WATCH ON THE OVAL OFFICE AND POUR COLD, HARD FACTS
ON THE OVERHEATED POLITICAL RHETORIC.
I'M BRIAN LEHRER.
TODAY WE DISCUSS THE U.S. INVESTIGATION INTO RUSSIA'S
POTENTIAL MEDDLING IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS SEEN
THROUGH THE LENS OF A PROMINENT INVESTIGATOR OF WATERGATE.
LATER ON IN THE SHOW WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE EFFECT
AUTOMATION IS HAVING ON JOBS.
A NEW STUDY FINDS IT IS MUCH MORE THAN BAD TRADE DEALS WHICH
GET MORE POLITICAL HEAT.
FIRST UP, THE PRESIDENT UNDER THE MICROSCOPE THEN AND NOW.
IN 1974, U.S. CONGRESS MEMBER FROM BROOKLYN, ELIZABETH
HOLTZMAN, SERVED ON THE HOUSE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE THAT VOTED
TO IMPEACH RICHARD NIXON.
MS. HOLTZMAN WAS THE AUTHOR OF SPECIAL PROSECUTOR LEGISLATION
LATER PASSED IN RESPONSE TO THE WATERGATE AFFAIR.
SHE JOINS US NOW TO DISCUSS SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN WATERGATE AND THE CURRENT INVESTIGATION.
WELCOME THE PROGRAM.
>> THANK YOU, BRIAN. GLAD TO BE HERE.
>> ONE OF THE EERIE PARALLELS WITH WATERGATE IS THAT NIXON
FIRED THE SPECIAL PROSECUTOR, ARCHIBALD COX IN THE FAMOUS
WHAT THEY CALL THE SATURDAY NIGHT MASSACRE.
AND WE HEAR THAT TRUMP IS SETTING UP TO POSSIBLY TRY TO
FIRE ROBERT MUELLER.
WHY DID NIXON THINK HE COULD GET AWAY WITH IT?
>> WELL, NIXON KNEW THAT IF THE SPECIAL PROSECUTOR GOT WHAT HE
WAS AFTER, WHICH WAS OVAL OFFICE TAPES OF NIXON'S CONVERSATIONS,
THAT WOULD SPELL THE END OF NIXON BECAUSE THOSE TAPE
RECORDINGS WOULD PROVE OR DISPROVE WHETHER NIXON
PARTICIPATED IN THE COVERUP. ULTIMATELY, THEY PROVED THAT
HE PARTICIPATED IN THE COVERUP,
NOT JUST PARTICIPATED BUT ORCHESTRATED THE COVERUP.
NIXON KNEW THAT THOS TAPES WERE DYNAMITE, THAT THE SPECIAL
PROSECUTOR WAS TRYING TO OBTAIN THEM, SUBPOENAED THEM,
WAS SEEKING THEM AND HE SAID I CAN'T TOLERATE THIS,
I WILL BE OUT OF THE PRESIDENCY IF HE GETS THOSE TAPES.
HE DIDN'T DIRECTLY FIRE COX.
HE ORDERED THE ATTORNEY GENERAL TO FIRE COX.
THE ATTORNEY GENERAL REFUSED.
THEN HE ASKED THE DEPUTY ATTORNEY GENERAL TO FIRE COX.
THE DEPUTY REFUSED.
BOTH OF THEM RESIGNED RATHER THAN FIRE COX, AND THEN THE
NUMBER THREE PERSON, ROBERT BORK FIRED COX.
>> ROBERT BORK, A FOOTNOTE OF HISTORY FOR HAVING BEEN TURNED
DOWN FOR A SUPREME COURT JUSTICE POSITION AFTER BEING
NOMINATED BY RONALD REAGAN BECAUSE HE WAS SEEN AS TOO
RADICAL, AND HE'S THE ONE WHO ACTUALLY AGREED TO
FIRE THE SPECIAL PROSECUTOR ON BEHALF OF RICHARD NIXON?
>> IT WOULD HAVE BEEN A SCANDAL FOR THE PERSON WHO REMOVED THE
SPECIAL PROSECUTOR TO BE SITTING ON THE SUPREME COURT, SO I'M
GLAD HE NEVER MADE IT.
>> HOW MUCH DID THAT INCIDENT AND THE POLITICAL BACKLASH FROM
IT HAVE TO DO WITH THE ULTIMATE RESIGNATION OF NIXON?
>> WELL, UP TO THAT POINT OF THE FIRING OF THE SPECIAL PROSECUTOR
THERE HAD BEEN FIRST A SENATE WATERGATE HEARING, AND THE
QUESTION THERE WAS WHAT DOES THE PRESIDENT KNOW AND WHEN DID HE
KNOW IT? THAT SET OF QUESTIONS STARTED TO PRODUCE A LOT OF
NEGATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT NIXON.
FOR EXAMPLE, ONE OF HIS TOP AIDES, JOHN DEAN, SAID, "I TOLD
THE PRESIDENT THERE WAS A CANCER ON THE PRESIDENCY, I TOLD THE
PRESIDENT THAT BRIBES WERE BEING PAID TO THE PEOPLE WHO BROKE
INTO THE WATERGATE COMPLEX AND DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE
HEADQUARTERS, I TOLD THE PRESIDENT THAT PARDONS WERE
BEING ISSUED." AND INSTEAD OF SAYING, "THAT'S TERRIBLE, LET'S
END THIS," HE SAID, "I KNOW HOW WE CAN GET THE MONEY TO
PAY OFF THE BURGLARS."
THAT'S THE KIND OF INFORMATION THAT WOULD COME OUT AND MORE.
ALSO INFORMATION ABOUT A TAPE RECORDING SYSTEM.
WHAT HAPPENED WAS THAT THE LEADERSHIP OF THE HOUSE OF
REPRESENTATIVES DID NOT WANT TO MOVE ON THE
QUESTION OF IMPEACHMENT.
NOTHING HAPPENED ON IMPEACHMENT UNTIL THE
SATURDAY NIGHT MASSACRE.
AT THAT POINT IT WASN'T THE MEMBERS OF CONGRESS
WHO MADE THE DECISION.
IT WAS THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WHO WERE OUTRAGED THAT A PRESIDENT
COULD FIRE A PROSECUTOR WHO WAS INVESTIGATING PEOPLE AROUND HIM
AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIMSELF.
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE SAID, "WE'RE NOT A BANANA REPUBLIC AND,
CONGRESS, YOU HAVE TO HOLD THE PRESIDENT ACCOUNTABLE, YOU HAVE
TO TAKE ACTION." SO THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED.
>> DID NIXON STOKE THE SUPPORT
OF HIS BASE IN THE WAY THAT TRUMP SEEMS TO BE DOING BY
CALLING IT A WITCH-HUNT AND EVERYTHING?
>> OH, WELL, NIXON ATTACKED IT CONSTANTLY.
HE SAID THERE'S NOTHING THERE.
HE SAID HIS AIDES, YOU KNOW, WERE HONEST.
HE BLAMED IT ON JOHN DEAN, HIS LAWYER, HE WAS SUPPOSED TO WRITE
A REPORT, HE NEVER WROTE A REPORT, THAT KIND OF THING.
SO, OF COURSE, HE WAS TRYING TO MANIPULATE THE FACTS.
HE WAS ALSO TRYING TO MANIPULATE THE PROSECUTORS.
I MEAN WE SEE PARALLELS NOT JUST IN THE FIRING OF ARCHIBALD
COX BUT PARALLELS IN THE EFFORTS TO MANIPULATE THE PROSECUTOR.
HERE WE HAVE PRESIDENT TRUMP CALLING THE RUSSIA INVESTIGATION
A HOAX, THE WORST WITCH-HUNT IN AMERICA, A HORROR.
BASICALLY CLAIMING THAT THE PROSECUTOR HIMSELF IS ENGAGED IN
ILLEGAL AND UNETHICAL THINGS.
A PROSECUTOR CAN'T ENGAGE IN A WITCH-HUNT, CAN'T ENGAGE IN A
FALSE INVESTIGATION, CAN'T DO THAT KIND OF THING.
SO HE IS ACCUSING HIM ON THE ONE HAND, AND THEN WE RECENTLY
LEARNED THAT HE ACTUALLY WAS SENDING FRIENDLY MESSAGES TO
THE PROSECUTOR.
THAT HAPPENED, NIXON DID THAT DURING WATERGATE.
HE SAT DOWN WITH THE TOP PROSECUTOR OF THE DEPARTMENT OF
JUSTICE AND BEGUILED HIM, CHARMED HIM, GOT THE TOP
PROSECUTOR TO GIVE HIM ALL OF THE INFORMATION ABOUT
WHAT WAS GOING ON IN THE INVESTIGATION, AND THEN
NIXON TURNED AROUND AND TOLD HIS AIDES, THIS IS WHAT
THEY'RE LOOKING FOR.
THAT WAS PART OF THE ARTICLES OF IMPEACHMENT.
SO DONALD TRUMP IS TAKING A PAGE OUT OF WATERGATE, AND HE REALLY
NEEDS TO REMEMBER IF HE FOLLOWS IN NIXON'S FOOTSTEPS WHAT'S
GOING THE HAPPEN TO HIM.
>> SO IF TRUMP REALLY DID THIS, AS REPORTED,
THAT IS SENT A FRIENDLY NOTE TO ROBERT MUELLER BEHIND
THE SCENES LIKE, OH, YOU'RE DOING A GREAT JOB, WHILE CALLING
IT A WITCH-HUNT PUBLICLY, ARE YOU SUGGESTING BASED ON THE
HISTORY OF NIXON THAT HE MAY BE PUTTING HIMSELF IN CRIMINAL
LIABILITY BY DOING THAT, NOT JUST DOING SOMETHING
INAPPROPRIATE?
>> YEAH, I THINK IT MIGHT BE AN ABUSE OF THE POWER OF HIS
OFFICE, AND IT MAY ALSO BE AN OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE EFFORT TO
TRY TO INTIMIDATE THE PROSECUTOR.
I MEAN THE ATTACKS ON MUELLER, AN EFFORT TO TRY TO INTIMIDATE
THE PROSECUTOR, AND AN EFFORT TO GET HIS BASE TO CALL MEMBERS OF
CONGRESS TO TRY TO CUT OFF THE INVESTIGATION, TO ATTACK THE
INVESTIGATION AND UNDERMINE IT.
AND THEN THE STROKING, WHAT I WOULD CALL THE STROKING
CONVERSATIONS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT HE WANTS TO TRY TO INFLUENCE
THE OUTCOME OF THIS.
SO I THINK WHOEVER IS ADVISING HIM IS NOT
GIVING HIM GOOD ADVICE.
TRUMP NEEDS TO STAY AWAY FROM THE PROSECUTOR, BUT HE ID
INCAPABLE OF DOING THAT.
>> HE MAY BE ADVISING HIMSELF ULTIMATELY.
AND THERE SEEMS TO BE A PATTERN OF THIS, BECAUSE HE ALSO MADE
CONTACTS WITH COMEY EARLY ON WHEN COMEY WAS FBI DIRECTOR AND
WITH THE U.S. ATTORNEY FROM NEW YORK PREET BHARARA THAT LED
BOTH COMEY AND BHARARA TO ALERT THEIR COLLEAGUES
AND SAY, "WAIT, I CAN'T BE GETTING THESE CALLS, THESE
SORT OF POLITICAL CALLS FROM THE PRESIDENT."
>> WELL, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT ROBERT MUELLER IS INVESTIGATING
IS WHETHER THE FIRING OF COMEY WAS AN OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE,
IN OTHER WORDS A FEDERAL CRIME.
REMEMBER, HE FIRST INVITED COMEY TO THE WHITE HOUSE
FOR A PRIVATE DINNER.
I MEAN VERY FEW PEOPLE GET INVITED TO HAVE A PRIVATE DINNER
WITH THE PRESIDENT.
WHY IS THE FBI DIRECTOR BEING CALLED TO A PRIVATE DINNER?
BECAUSE THE CONVERSATION IS ABOUT BEING LOYAL TO HIM.
THEN THERE ARE FUTURE CONVERSATIONS ABOUT DROPPING THE
INVESTIGATION INTO FLYNN, WHICH HAD TO DO WITH, AGAIN, THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RUSSIANS AND THE MEDDLING OF THE RUSSIANS IN
THE U.S. ELECTION.
SO HE HAS A PATTERN OF ATTACKING THE PROSECUTOR, TRYING TO
OBSTRUCT INVESTIGATIONS, AND HE'S USING A VARIETY
OF TECHNIQUES. >> TRUMP HAS SUGGESTED --
>> I'M GOING TO SAY THAT NONE OF THEM WILL WORK BECAUSE I THINK
THAT MUELLER IS A VERY PROFESSIONAL AND VERY
EXPERIENCED PROSECUTOR, AND HE HAS ASSEMBLED A TOP-NOTCH TEAM
AND THEY'RE GOING TO TRY TO ROOT OUT THE TRUTH.
>> WHAT ABOUT THE ATTEMPT TO ATTACK THE TEAM ON THE BASIS
THAT SOME OF THEM WERE CONTRIBUTORS TO CLINTON
OR OTHER DEMOCRATS?
IT CAN LOOK UNSEEMLY IF A PROSECUTOR WHO IS SUPPOSED TO
BE POLITICALLY INDEPENDENT IS MAKING POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS
TO ANYONE. >> YES, BUT YOU DON'T KNOW THE
BASIS OF THE POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS.
MAYBE IT WAS YOUR BEST FRIEND WHO SAID, CAN YOU DO ME A FAVOR
AND GIVE THIS CONTRIBUTION, SO FORTH AND SO ON.
YOU DON'T KNOW IF IT IS IDEOLOGICAL OR SENTIMENTAL
AFFILIATION, BUT THE POINT BEYOND THAT IS THAT THESE ARE
FLIMSY AND CONCOCTED CHARGES DESIGNED TO TRY TO INTIMIDATE
MUELLER AND THE INVESTIGATION.
THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE HAS ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THESE
"CONFLICTS OF INTEREST" ARE NOT VALID CLAIMS.
THIS IS TRUMP'S DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE,
SO LET'S GET PAST THIS.
I THINK A POINT TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT HE'S THROWING UP -- HE'S
THE ONE WHO IS THROWING UP THE FAKE ARGUMENTS.
HE IS THE ONE WHO IS TRYING TO OBSTRUCT THE INVESTIGATION.
>> ARE YOU SURPRISED THAT JEFF SESSIONS, GIVEN HOW POLITICAL HE
TENDS TO BE, DID RECUSE HIMSELF, ALLOWING FOR
MUELLER TO BE APPOINTED?
>> WELL, I THINK THAT SESSIONS REALLY HAD NO CHOICE ABOUT
RECUSING HIMSELF.
AS HE HIMSELF SAID, HE'S THE ATTORNEY GENERAL.
HE IS TOLD BY THE PROFESSIONAL CIVIL SERVANT EMPLOYEES AT THE
JUSTICE DEPARTMENT THAT HE'S OBLIGED UNDER JUSTICE DEPARTMENT
RULES TO RECUSE HIMSELF.
HE WANTS TO STAY ON AS ATTORNEY GENERAL.
SO I'M NOT SURE THAT HE NECESSARILY ENVISIONED THAT THIS
WAS GOING TO LEAD TO THE APPOINTMENT OF MUELLER, BUT HE
DID THE RIGHT THING THEN. >> ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
WEEK, IT IS REPORTED THAT THE FBI RAIDED A HOME BELONGING TO
FORMER TRUMP CAMPAIGN MANAGER PAUL MANAFORT.
WHAT DO YOU THINK THEY'RE LOOKING FOR THERE?
AND MANAFORT HAD SAID PUBLICLY THAT HE WAS COOPERATING, SO DOES
THIS INDICATE MAYBE HE WASN'T AS MUCH AS HE WAS TRYING TO LEAD US
ALL TO BELIEVE?
>> WELL, HE MIGHT HAVE BEEN, BUT IT MAY BE THE FBI WAS INTERESTED
IN MORE INFORMATION THAN HE HAD GIVEN THEM.
ALSO, HE SAID HE HAD BEEN COOPERATING WITH THE SENATE, NOT
NECESSARILY THE SAME THING AS THE FBI.
>> OH. >> AND THE OTHER THING THAT'S
REALLY IMPORTANT HERE IS THAT MANAFORT WAS
THE CAMPAIGN MANAGER.
HE HAD VAST CONNECTIONS WITH PRO-RUSSIAN
UKRAINIAN ORGANIZATIONS.
HE HIMSELF HAS ADMITTED THAT HE DIDN'T DO THE PROPER FILINGS
THAT WERE REQUIRED UNDER THE FEDERAL LAW, SO HE MAY BE IN
CRIMINAL -- MAY BE FACING CRIMINAL LIABILITY.
HE ALSO HAS HAD A VERY CLOSE CONNECTION WITH ROGER STONE,
ANOTHER ONE OF TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN ADVISERS, AND ROGER STONE AS WE
KNOW WAS IN TOUCH WITH RUSSIAN HACKERS DURING THE TIME THAT
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IN TERMS OF MEDDLING WITH THE U.S. ELECTION.
SO MANAFORT -- >> AND FUNNY, CLOSE TO NIXON.
>> I THINK HE HAS A TATTOO RELATED TO NIXON ON HIS BACK.
BUT THE POINT IS THAT THESE PEOPLE HAVE A LOT TO SAY, COULD
KNOW A LOT ABOUT MEDDLING, AND ESPECIALLY MR. MANAFORT MAY BE
IN A SITUATION WHERE HE WILL HAVE TO COOPERATE WITH THE FEDS,
OTHERWISE FACE CRIMINAL CHARGES.
>> AND TRUMP HAS SUGGESTED THAT MUELLER SHOULD STICK NARROWLY TO
THE QUESTION OF RUSSIAN MEDDLING AND MAYBE CAMPAIGN COLLUSION
WITH RUSSIAN MEDDLING IN THE ELECTION HAVING TO DO WITH THE
DNC EMAILS AND THINGS LIKE THAT, AND NOT LOOK AT TRUMP'S
PERSONAL FINANCES OR BUSINESS FINANCES.
DO YOU THINK THAT'S A REASONABLE LINE?
>> NO.
YOU CAN'T TELL A PROSECUTOR WHAT TO DO, AND YOU CAN'T TELL MR.
MUELLER WHAT TO DO. >> FOR YOU AS A FORMER
PROSECUTOR, DOES IT INDICATE THAT TRUMP IS AFRAID OF
SOMETHING IN PARTICULAR?
>> YES, I THINK -- I THINK HIS RESPONSE TO THIS -- FIRST THE
COMEY INVESTIGATION AND THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION, ATTACKING
THE PROSECUTORS, TRYING TO GET OTHER PEOPLE TO INTERFERE.
REMEMBER, ONE OF THE THINGS I DIDN'T MENTION BEFORE IS THAT
TRUMP TRIED -- CALLED TWO CABINET OFFICIALS, FORMER
SENATOR DAN COATS AND THE HEAD OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY,
ROGERS, TO GET THEM TO GET COMEY TO STOP AN INVESTIGATION.
SO WE HAVE A PATTERN THAT'S VERY, VERY SERIOUS HERE OF THE
PRESIDENT TRYING TO INTERFERE WITH AN INVESTIGATION, AND HE
DOES IT IN A VARIETY OF WAYS.
THESE ARE -- AND THEY'RE DANGEROUS.
>> MUELLER IS NOW USING TWO GRAND JURIES FROM WHAT'S BEEN
REPORTED, ONE IN D.C. AND ONE IN VIRGINIA.
WHY WOULD HE NEED TWO?
>> WELL, ONE MAY HAVE BEEN STARTED UNDER COMEY WHEN COMEY
WAS FBI DIRECTOR.
>> I THINK THAT'S RIGHT, THE ONE IN EASTERN VIRGINIA, RIGHT?
>> IN EASTERN VIRGINIA.
AND THEN IT MAY BE THAT THAT GRAND JURY WAS CONSIDERING OTHER
MATTERS AND IT MAY ALSO HAVE BEEN IN VIRGINIA, WHICH IS NOT
AS CONVENIENT AS A D.C. GRAND JURY.
SO THAT'S PROBABLY WHY MUELLER ASKED FOR THE IMPANELMENT OF A
SECOND GRAND JURY.
IT IS APPARENTLY A SPECIAL GRAND JURY, SO IT IS JUST FOCUSED ON
THIS MATTER SO THAT THEY WON'T HAVE TO DEAL WITH OTHER ISSUES,
MURDERS, BANK ROBBERIES AND SO FORTH.
>> SOME TRUMP SUPPORTERS LIKE NEWT GINGRICH HAVE SUGGESTED
THAT IT IS TOO POLITICIZED TO IMPANEL IT IN D.C. BECAUSE D.C.
VOTED SOMETHING LIKE 96% FOR HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT,
AND SO FINDING A FAIR GRAND JURY WHO WILL BE FAIR IN DECIDING
WHETHER OR NOT TO INDICT DONALD TRUMP OR HIS ASSOCIATES IS HARD
TO IMPOSSIBLE. WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> I THINK THAT'S NONSENSE.
I THINK WHAT ALAN DERSHOWITZ SAID IS RACIST WHEN HE
IMPLIED -- >> THE HARVARD LAW PROFESSOR.
>> HE WAS MY LAW PROFESSOR AND I'M SHOCKED BY WHAT HE SAID,
BASICALLY SUGGESTING THAT BECAUSE THERE WERE SO MANY
AFRICAN-AMERICANS LIVING IN D.C. AND SERVING ON GRAND JURIES
THAT TRUMP COULDN'T GET A FAIR GRAND JURY.
WE DON'T THINK THAT WAY ANYMORE IN AMERICA.
YOU CANNOT INTERFERE WITH THE RACIAL COMPOSITION OF A JURY.
DOES THAT MEAN THEN NO BLACK COULD BE TRIED BY A WHITE JURY?
>> DID HE SAY RACIAL COMPOSITION? --
>> I DON'T KNOW IF HE SAID RACIAL. NO, I THINK HE
TALKED ABOUT THE COMPOSITION OF THE JURY,
AND I THINK IT IS TRUE. I THINK ALSO WE KNOW WHAT NEWT
GINGRICH IS IMPLYING BY HIS COMMENTS, TOO.
HE'S -- IN GINGRICH'S CASE, BORDERLINE RACIST AND IN
DERSHOWITZ'S CASE ACTUALLY RACIST.
>> THERE'S AN OLD SAYING THAT A D.A. CAN INDICT A HAM SANDWICH.
I THINK IT CAME FROM A FORMER CHIEF JUDGE OF NEW YORK STATE.
>> WHO HIMSELF GOT INTO SOME CRIMINAL TROUBLE.
>> THE IDEA IS THAT A PROSECUTOR CAN, YOU KNOW, BE SO
INFLUENTIAL OVER A GRAND JURY PER SE THAT HE OR SHE CAN GET
THEM TO DO THAT WITHOUT MUCH TROUBLE.
HOW TRUE DO YOU THINK IT IS AS A FORMER D.A.
>> IN NEW YORK WE DIDN'T HAVE QUITE THE SAME RULES AS YOU HAVE
IN THE FEDERAL SYSTEM.
IN NEW YORK PROSECUTORS ARE NOT ALLOWED TO MAKE A RECOMMENDATION
TO THE GRAND JURY.
THEY JUST PRESENT THE EVIDENCE AND THE LAW AND THE GRAND JURY
HAS TO MAKE ITS DETERMINATION.
IN THE FEDERAL SYSTEM, THE PROSECUTORS CAN
MAKE A RECOMMENDATION.
THAT DOESN'T MEAN EVERY PERSON ON THE GRAND JURY IS GOING TO
AGREE, BUT MOST OF THE TIME THE GRAND JURY WILL DEFER TO THE
RECOMMENDATION OF THE PROSECUTOR, CERTAINLY ON THE
FEDERAL LEVEL. >> MS. HOLTZMAN, THANKS FOR
SHARING YOUR EXPERIENCE AND INSIGHTS.
>> THANK YOU.
>> STAY WITH US AS WE BRING ON SOME ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE.
♪♪
>>> TIME FOR EVIDENCE-BASED POLITICS WHERE WE POUR COLD
HARD FACTS ON THE OVERHEATED POLITICAL RHETORIC.
ONE THING LAST YEAR'S ELECTION MADE CLEAR IS THAT THE LOSS OF
TRADITIONAL FACTORY JOBS HAS TRANSFORMED THE POLITICAL
LANDSCAPE, AND THAT THIS IS TRUE IN CERTAIN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
MORE THAN OTHERS.
DONALD TRUMP CAPITALIZED ON THIS BY CAMPAIGNING TO REVITALIZE THE
MANUFACTURING ECONOMY.
AS A CANDIDATE, TRUMP BLAMED CHINA AND TRADE AGREEMENTS,
ESPECIALLY NAFTA, THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT.
AS PRESIDENT HE WITHDREW FROM THE TRANSPACIFIC TRADE
AGREEMENT AND SIGNALED HE WOULD PUT A TARIFF ON STEEL IMPORTS.
BUT EXPERTS SAY THERE'S ANOTHER MORE IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE
LOSS OF MANUFACTURING JOBS THAT'S BEING LARGELY
OVERLOOKED. THAT'S AUTOMATION.
A NEW STUDY FINDS THAT HALF OF ALL U.S. JOBS COULD BE AT RISK
FROM AUTOMATION.
THE STUDY SHOWS JUST HOW CONCENTRATED THE IMPACT IS.
WE'LL SEE A MAP.
AND THE CONSEQUENCES.
TO WALK US THROUGH THESE FINDINGS IS SRIKANT DEVARAJ,
PROFESSOR OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS AT BALL STATE
UNIVERSITY. HIS PAPER IS CALLED "HOW VULNERABLE ARE AMERICAN
COMMUNITIES TO AUTOMATION, TRADE AND URBANIZATION."
PROFESSOR DEVARAJ JOINS US FROM MUNCIE, INDIANA.
THANKS FOR COMING ON. WELCOME TO THE SHOW.
>> HELLO, BRIAN. THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
>> WHAT DID YOU SET OUT TO MEASURE?
>> WE LOOKED AT THE RISK OF JOBS THAT COULD BE LOST DUE TO
AUTOMATION AND OFF-SHORE ABILITY AT A COUNTY LEVEL.
SO WE USED TWO POPULAR STUDIES THAT ACTUALLY FINDS THE RISK OF
OFF-SHORE ABILITY AND AUTOMATION, AND WE APPLIED THOSE
WITH THE OCCUPATIONAL LEVEL DATA AT A COUNTY LEVEL, AND WE
ESTIMATED THESE INTENSITY OF JOB LOSSES RELATIVE TO ONE ANOTHER.
>> SO I WANT TO PUT UP THE MAP THAT YOU PROVIDED SHOWING THAT
CONCENTRATION COUNTY BY COUNTY.
THE DARKER THE BLUE OR PURPLE, THE MORE AT RISK A COUNTY IS
FROM LOSING MANY JOBS TO AUTOMATION.
OH, MY GOODNESS, THE DARK BLUE IS EVERYWHERE, PROFESSOR.
>> UNFORTUNATELY THAT'S THE SAD TRUTH.
ALMOST ALL OF THE COUNTIES ARE EQUALLY -- HAVE A MAJORITY OF
THEIR SHARE OF THE JOBS ARE UNDER RISK OF AUTOMATION, AND
BASED ON THE DATA, I WOULD SAY ABOUT 36% TO 68% OF
JOB IN A PARTICULAR COUNTY ARE IN A RELATIVE RISK OF
AUTOMATION WITH THE CURRENT LEVEL OF TECHNOLOGY.
NOW, IF THE TECHNOLOGY KEEPS IMPROVING, YOU WILL PROBABLY SEE
MORE DARKER IN THOSE -- IN THE FUTURE DECADES.
>> EVERYBODY WILL HAVE TO MOVE TO MONTANA BASED ON THAT MAP.
YOUR STUDY DID INCLUDE A LIST OF THE TOP 25 COUNTIES MOST AT
RISK TO AUTOMATION.
THE TOP 25 ARE IN ALL TEN STATES: ALASKA, GEORGIA,
VIRGINIA, MISSISSIPPI, THE CAROLINAS, ALABAMA, INDIANA,
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY, WHICH YOU CAN SEE FROM THAT MAP.
THE JOBS LISTED IN THE STUDY ARE MOSTLY SURPRISING TO ME.
THEY INCLUDE DATA ENTRY KEEPERS, MATH JOBS, TELEMARKETERS,
INSURANCE JOBS.
THESE ARE NOT THE KINDS OF THINGS THAT WE CONSIDER
TRADITIONAL MANUFACTURING JOBS LIKE MAKING CARS OR
MAKING CLOTHING.
THESE ARE OUR SERVICE SECTOR JOBS, AND EVEN STEM JOBS IF YOU
ARE TALKING ABOUT DATA ENTRY AND MATH.
I THOUGHT THESE WERE THE KINDS OF JOBS THAT ARE SUPPOSED TO BE
RELATIVELY IMMUNE FROM AUTOMATION.
EVEN THEY ARE NOT?
>> SO, UNFORTUNATELY, NO, BECAUSE THERE ARE A LOT OF
ROUTINE OFFICE JOBS THAT ARE UNDER HIGHER RISK OF AUTOMATION.
SO ONCE AN OCCUPATION IS PRONE TO MANY ROUTINE-TYPE ACTIVITIES,
THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE AUTOMATED.
AND WHAT ACTUALLY THAT PUTS INTO PRESSURE IS THE -- EVEN
MANUFACTURING JOBS ARE ALSO UNDER RISK OF AUTOMATION EVEN
THOUGH THEY DON'T COME IN AT THE TOP TEN.
THEY DO HAVE A MAJOR SHARE OF RISK OF -- I MEAN JOBS BEING
LOST TO AUTOMATION AS WELL.
SO MOSTLY MANUFACTURING, LOGISTICS INDUSTRY AND
WAREHOUSING ARE THREE MAJOR INDUSTRIES THAT WILL BE IMPACTED
AS A RESULT OF AUTOMATION.
AND THE TOP AUTOMATABLE JOBS BY OCCUPATION TYPE THAT WILL BE
MOST LIKELY WITH THE ROUTINE OCCUPATIONS, TOO.
>> I'M GOING TO PUT UP ANOTHER GRAPH FROM YOUR STUDY.
THIS ONE SHOWS THE LEVEL OF RISK OF A JOB LOST TO AUTOMATION
COMPARED TO THE RISK OF A JOB BEING SHIPPED OUT OF THE COUNTRY
BY EDUCATION LEVEL.
SO WHAT WE SEE IS -- OR BY INCOME.
I SHOULD SAY BY INCOME LEVEL.
SO THE LIGHT BLUE LINE IS THE MEDIUM WAGE OF PEOPLE WORKING AT
JOBS AT RISK FROM AUTOMATION.
THE DARK BLUE LINE, WHICH IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHT, IS THE
MEDIAN WAGE OF PEOPLE AT RISK OF LOSING THEIR JOBS DUE TO
OFF-SHORING OF THE JOB.
SO AS WE SEE, THE MEDIAN WAGE OF PEOPLE AT RISK FROM AUTOMATION
IS GOING DOWN. SO WHAT DOES THAT TELL US?
>> THAT IS TRUE.
SO WHAT THAT GRAPH DOES SHOW IS THE LOWER LEVELS OF AUTOMATION
RISK ARE, INDEED, ASSOCIATED WITH MUCH HIGHER WAGES.
SO HIGH WAGE, HIGH-SKILLED JOBS, PROBABLY ABOUT ON AN AVERAGE OF
$80,000 AND ABOVE, THEY ARE ACTUALLY THE LEAST AUTOMATED
POSSIBLE JOBS.
AND ONCE YOU GO PAST THE FILE AND THE LOWER AUTOMATION LEVEL
JOBS ARE ACTUALLY HAVING LOW WAGE JOBS THERE.
SO THE LOW WAGE, LOW SKILL JOBS ARE HIGHER PRONE TO AUTOMATION
THAN HIGH WAGE, HIGH SKILL JOBS.
THERE ARE, I WOULD SAY, THERE ARE SOME -- I MEAN IF YOU
TAKE -- COMBINE THAT WITH, SAY, EDUCATION LEVELS OF EACH COUNTY,
YOU CAN LOOK AT THE CLUSTERING.
THE HARD PART IS THE CLUSTERING OF THESE JOBS BECAUSE HIGH WAGE
JOBS TEND TO BE CLUSTERED TOGETHER AND THE LOW WAGE JOBS
TEND TO BE CLUSTERED TOGETHER.
SO THE RISK CAN OF JOBS LOST AS A RESULT OF LOW WAGES, THEY TEND
TO BE CLUSTERED IN A MASS.
THAT IS WHAT IS CONCERNING, ESPECIALLY IN
THIS KIND OF SCENARIO.
>> IS THERE ANY POLICY RESPONSE
POSSIBLE TO THIS, LIKE TRUMP, WHETHER WE THINK IT WOULD BE
EFFECTIVE OR NOT, CAMPAIGNED ON POLICIES MEANT TO SLOW THE TIDE
OF JOBS GOING OUT OF THE COUNTRY BY MAKING BETTER TRADE DEALS, BY
PROPOSING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN IMPORT TARIFF ON PRODUCTS COMING
BACK HERE IF JOBS LEAVE, THINGS LIKE THAT.
AGAIN, THOSE MAY OR MAY NOT WORK BUT THEY'RE ATTEMPTS AT COMING
UP WITH POLICIES DESIGNED TO STOP THAT.
ARE THERE POLICIES THAT COULD STOP THE AUTOMATION
OF THE JOBS OF AMERICA?
>> NOT REALLY, BECAUSE THE TECHNOLOGY ACTUALLY IS BECOMING
CHEAPER AND CHEAPER AS WE GO EVERY YEAR, AND BUSINESSES
ACTUALLY WOULD LIKE TO CUT DOWN THEIR COST BECAUSE OF THE
COMPETITIVE MARKET AND BECAUSE OF THESE PRESSURES.
THE TECHNOLOGY IS HERE TO STAY AND IT ALWAYS WILL BE IMPROVING,
SO I WOULD LIKE TO CITE A STUDY THAT WE DID WITH MY CO-AUTHOR --
I MEAN TWO YEARS BACK.
WHAT WE FIND IS OUT OF HUNDRED JOBS LOST IN MANUFACTURING
BETWEEN, SAY, FOR THE PAST 15 YEARS, ONLY 12 JOBS WERE LOST
DUE TO TRADE.
THE REMAINING 88 JOBS WERE ACTUALLY BEING LOST DUE TO
IMPROVEMENTS IN PRODUCTIVITY.
THAT IS PREDOMINANTLY FROM AUTOMATION.
NOW LET'S LOOK AT THE OCCUPATION LEVEL, AND ARE WE FINDING ANY
DIFFERENCES IN THOSE LEVELS AND HOW DO WE APPLY
THEM AT A COUNTY LEVEL?
SO THAT WAS THE SHOCKING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE
POLICIES, WHATEVER IS IN PLACE.
IT DOES SURELY HELP SOME JOBS, BUT WE ARE ACTUALLY OVERLOOKING
THE BIGGER PICTURE HERE, WHICH IS PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS.
THERE ARE SOME DATA THAT ACTUALLY JUSTIFIES OUR -- I MEAN
ESPECIALLY IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR, IF YOU LOOK AT THE GDP
OF MANUFACTURING, SAY, IN -- LET'S SAY 20 YEARS BACK IN 1997,
IT IS ABOUT 1,360 BILLION DOLLARS IN MANUFACTURING GDP.
NOW, IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT 20 YEARS LATER, SAY IN 2016, THE
MANUFACTURING GDP IS ABOUT 1,900 BILLION DOLLARS, AND THESE
NUMBERS ARE AFTER ADJUSTING FOR INFLATION.
WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD OF 1997, WE HAD 17.4 MILLION
MANUFACTURING WORKERS, BUT IN 2016 WE HAD ONLY
12.4 MILLION WORKERS.
>> SO THAT'S HOW BIG AN EFFECT AUTOMATION HAS HAD.
>> THAT'S THE BIG EFFECT.
>> SO WE JUST HAVE 30 SECONDS.
I MEAN IT ALMOST SOUNDS LIKE AN INEVITABLE HOLLOWING OUT OF THE
MIDDLE CLASS OVER TIME.
SOME PEOPLE LIKE THE FORMER SEIU UNION LEADER ANDY STERN SAID
WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO GO TO SOME KIND OF GUARANTEED
GOVERNMENT WAGE BECAUSE THERE ARE GOING TO BE SO FEW JOBS IN
THE UNITED STATES.
CAN YOU GIVE US A VISION OF POSSIBILITIES THAT'S LESS DIRE
THAN THAT IN OUR LAST 20 SECONDS?
>> SO THE KEY THING I ALWAYS -- WHEN I SPEAK WITH A REPORTER OR
WITH THE MEDIA IS EDUCATION IS THE KEY POLICY PIECE.
THAT ACTUALLY HELPS PEOPLE TO ACTUALLY RETRAIN THEMSELVES AND
BE ADAPTABLE TO THE TECHNOLOGY CHANGE.
SO A HIGH SCHOOL WORKER WITH -- WITH -- I MEAN A HIGH SCHOOL
WORK -- HIGH SCHOOL PERSON GETTING -- LOSING A JOB MAY HAVE
A HIGHER IMPACT IN TERMS OF EDUCATION ATTAINMENT THAN A
COLLEGE WORKER.
SO THE ADAPTABILITY IS SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE, AND K-12
SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE THESE KIND OF CHANGES, ADAPTABILITY, HOW
THEY CAN DO IN THEIR FUTURE GENERATION.
>> PROFESSOR, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR SHARING YOUR STUDY.
>> THANK YOU, BRIAN, FOR HAVING ME.
>> AND THAT'S "POTUS 2017" FOR TODAY.
WE'RE HERE EACH WEEK AT THIS HOUR POURING COLD, HARD FACTS ON
THE OVERHEATED POLITICAL RHETORIC.
I'M BRIAN LEHRER.
THANKS FOR WATCHING.
♪♪
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