(beeping)
(heroic music)
- And, hey everybody, what's going on?
Happy Tuesday.
Welcome to the Trader's Lunchbox.
My name is Rob Booker and today
we're gonna do some back-testing.
Now, what's the importance of tick data
when doing back-testing?
For a long time, I suspected that it probably
made no difference at all,
if I used tick data or didn't use it.
Well I've downloaded a bunch of data
with the tick data manager, Tick Data Suite.
And what we're gonna do today is we're gonna take a look
at some robots, and we're gonna do some back-testing,
and we're gonna look at modeling quality
of ninety-nine percent.
And that's pretty exciting for me because
when the modeling quality is higher,
that gives me more confidence that the back-test was
run using accurate information.
Now, I'm not gonna say that because I ran back-testing
with accurate information that means that
my robot's gonna work perfectly in the future.
That's not what I'm saying at all.
But I do wanna show you some tests,
on the Dr. Bill Finch which is gonna run
on a four hour trend.
And I wanna show you, the power of using tick data
and the ability to filter out bad trades.
And if there is anything that we can use
to filter out bad trades.
So to do that, we're gonna magically broadcast,
at least we're gonna try,
to magically broadcast my desktop screen,
from this surface book to computer.
We're gonna try anyway.
And we're gonna see if, we can.
So, is that, that's not working is it, Nate?
So that's not pulling up anything at all.
That's because I probably turned off
all notifications in Windows.
(laughs)
Okay, so we'll turn back the notifications.
It couldn't pop-up a notification,
because I turned all the notifications off.
So now, we're gonna be notified every 5 seconds
when I do something, great.
Here we go AirParrot.
Come on AirParrot, you can do it.
Is this really not gonna work?
Is this really?
This is gonna blow.
Nothing, right Nate?
Nothing?
(laughs)
We gave it a shot everybody.
By changing my notification settings,
I basically broke the whole thing.
So you know, I turned the notifications back on,
I was happy to have the notifications back on,
I was really excited about that.
I turned the quiet hours off, even Nate.
Which, it's not quiet hours.
Let's see if I can check out the task manager over here.
Oh, AirParrot is not responding.
All we gotta probably do is,
close it and restart it.
You know how that happens sometimes on the old,
the old Windows.
Here we go, searching for devices,
this is gonna work now,
this is glorious.
You have reflector open?
- [Nate] I do.
- Okay, well, that's great.
So we're gonna, we're gonna give this a shot.
Maybe we're not on the same wireless network
and that's part of the problem?
That probably is part of the problem.
- [Rob] So we'll connect to the other network
so we can see you.
- That would probably make a significant difference.
That's probably why AirParrot was unhappy.
For those of you that don't know,
AirParrot is software that helps me
broadcast my screen to another monitor.
And right now, it really hates me,
because, there we go.
Now, we're connected to the same network.
It should pop up and if it doesn't,
we'll just throw the computers out the window,
and we'll just decide to do
something completely different.
And it's still searching for devices.
How's that Nate?
- [Nate] It was working perfectly fine about an hour ago.
- It was working perfectly fine about an hour ago.
You know this is a,
Okay!
Please enter the passcode for Rob's map.
What's the passcode?
- [Nate] Six zero one nine.
- Six, zero, one, nine.
Thanks so much for sticking with us everybody,
we're always so happy to spend some time with you.
Can you see Darth Vader?
- [Nate] I can.
- Alright.
- [Nate] Soon they will be able to as well.
- Alright this is gonna be great.
Oh they haven't seen Darth Vader,
lets show them all,
the desktop background.
- [Rob] This is my holiday Darth Vader.
I imagine that these are little snowflakes
floating behind Darth Vader.
And we'll pull up, MetaTrader.
So what I wanna show you here on MetaTrader,
I wanna show you a couple of things.
The first thing that I wanna do is,
put a circle around the Knoxville Divergences.
These are the green lines,
underneath the candles.
Knoxville Divergence is an early warning sign,
that a reversal is coming.
It's not a guarantee that a reversal is coming.
It's just a suggestion, or an early warning sign
that there is a reversal in the market that's coming.
And sometimes that Knoxville Divergence comes
way too early, and it's basically,
I hate using the word a false signal cause
it's not a false signal, it's just what it is.
Other times Knoxville Divergence is dead on.
Like, it's really close to the actual reversal time.
So, Knoxville Divergence, in other words,
is not a perfect way to show a reversal,
and we build a robot called the Finch,
that trades based on Knoxville Divergence.
So when it sees these reversal lines,
these divergences, it will take a by-trade.
And that can get you into trouble.
That can get us into trouble because sometimes
the line shows up and a trade is taken,
but the reversal doesn't happen.
And then we either stop out,
or we're holding onto a losing trade.
What we've done here is taken a page out of
the old Rob Booker Trifecta 3 course.
And Dr. Bill, our good friend, said Rob
why don't we use these reversal arrows
that you built all those years ago,
and why don't we add those in as a filter?
And we won't take a trade until
those reversal arrows appear.
And that created a version of the Finch called Dr. Bill.
So we can run tests now,
that instead of holding onto losing trades,
and instead of getting into trades too early,
actually we'll wait for a reversal arrow confirmation.
Now, what I'll do here is open up
the settings on the robot,
and I'm just gonna do something,
absolutely ridiculous.
I'm just gonna do a 10 pip profit target on these trades.
On a 4 hour chart.
And I'm gonna test the US dollar, Canadian dollar.
We're gonna test the Dr. Bill Finch.
We're gonna test from 2014 to 2017
on a 4 hour chart.
And, we're gonna run this back-test
and we're gonna see if this will
produce some profit.
And what I wanna show you are a couple other things.
While that test is running,
what I wanna show you is,
this robot is now not going to take a divergence trade
until a reversal arrow appears.
So step one is look for Knoxville Divergence.
Step two is look for a reversal arrow.
What I wanna incorporate into this idea
is a step three,
which incorporates into it the addition of pivots.
Now this is the monthly pivot.
That monthly pivot is a fixed point in time,
and it not surprisingly to me
or anyone that's used to watching this show,
that acts as a really, really good profit target
on this trade.
Like a stupendous and spectacular profit target.
And I think you might wanna consider using that
as a profit target, on some of these trades.
We can even build that into the robot.
But I get really excited about this because
if I get into this trade,
and I'm holding onto this trade,
I might actually say, oh wow there's a
monthly pivot above there.
I'm gonna remove the traditional take profit,
and I'm going to add my own take profit.
I'm gonna turn the robot off essentially
on this currency pair and then switch it over
to my own profit target that might be larger.
Alright lets take a look at the graph first
and we'll see if this produced any profits.
Straight up, Nate.
Couldn't ask for a prettier graph there.
The results are lots and lots of positive trades.
And the report shows that we made ninety-one dollars.
Not a lot of trades.
We had basically no drawdown.
No trades were held onto for a long period of time.
Check this out.
If we open the, lets just walk through this
one by one I'm gonna take another
image screenshot of my,
well if I can anyway.
Lets see if I can.
If I can't that's fine too, who cares?
What do we care?
We'll just look through the,
okay we'll look through this manually.
It's hard to see this cause it's not closeup,
but what the system did was it opened the trade
in February and closed it the same day.
Opened the trade in July, closed it three days later.
Opened the trade in January, closed it one day later.
Opened the trade in May, closed it on the same day.
Closed it on the same day.
Closed it on the same day.
Closed the trade on the same day and so forth.
It keeps closing trades the same day
those trades are open.
That means, we are not holding onto bad trades.
So what I could do now is,
I could increase the trade size,
and increase the profit target,
and run the test again.
I have no idea Nate, why Windows doesn't wanna let me
take a little screenshot of this.
There we go.
Yeah, so there we go.
Now we're back so we'll be able to
look through these results.
So now, our profit target is much higher.
And our account is gonna grow much more quickly.
Our drawdown is going to go up as well however.
But, I mean, if it's reliably producing a lot of profit,
I don't have any problems with that.
I have no problems with this.
Lets see the report isn't quite done yet.
We're not done with our round of testing.
And welcome to the broadcast today.
We gotta another copy of Think and Grow Rich, Nate,
so I'm gonna grab it.
- [Nate] Sounds great.
- [Rob] Just went to the mailbox yesterday,
shipped out three copies of books to everybody.
So we've got a copy of Think and Grow Rich,
we've got an envelope, and we've got a sticker,
and I'll rip this sticker right off here
as the testing is going on.
We can do this together.
And, what should we ask everybody today?
Nate?
Your favorite movie of 2017 so far.
Was it Wonder Woman?
Was it Justice League?
Have you seen the Infinity Wars?
Preview?
The trailer for that bait?
- [Nate] Yes.
- [Rob] Holy, holy shizbomb.
My wife and I watched that last night,
and she said what is this?
She goes I don't like superhero movies
but this looks amazing.
It does look amazing, when they said somebody
get this man a shield, and then Steve Rodgers
walks out of the darkness and he's like,
dark Captain America.
Oh man, I'm like, that's awesome.
So what's your favorite movie of 2017?
Let us know we'll pick a winner in just a moment.
Our test is done, lets take a look at our report.
Now we're talking.
We had a five percent drawdown,
in exchange for a nine percent gain.
That means that we can go another step further.
We could even, as long as we have enough margin
in this account we could even go a step further,
and we could double the size of the profit target,
and we could make this work.
What this means too, is we could even get in
to some of these trades.
I could look at all ten, eleven, twelve
of these trades,
and I could look at every single one of them,
and I can look to see if each of those trades
has a possible pivot profit target that I could have used.
So I could, while the trade was open,
take off the smaller profit target,
and let the larger profit target run.
So don't forget while we're waiting
for this back-test to go through,
let us know you're favorite movie of 2017,
and we'll pick a winner from the comments
later today while everybody,
so if you're watching the recording,
if you're not able to watch this show live,
like the video, leave a comment as you're watching.
I think we'll add, you know, special bonus points
or we'll, you know, favor people who
watched it live of course.
But I am really excited to look at some of these results.
Lets look at one of these results while it's running.
2014 July, we've already seen that one.
Then we fast forward to 2016.
The 21st of July.
So lets, how do we do this?
Yeah this is good, 2016.
21st of January excuse me.
Okay here we go.
There is,
(laughs)
This is awesome.
Nate this is gonna rock.
Look at this.
Check this out everybody.
What if we did this.
What if, okay, this is the trade here.
This version of the Finch doesn't take
the Knoxville Divergence here because
there's no reversal arrow.
It does take this sell trade,
and look at we have down here Nate.
A monthly pivot.
We could program this robot probably,
to take profit at a monthly pivot.
We could change what this robot does.
We could also look at each one of these dates,
and we could just turn on the T6 trend trading robot,
and trend trade this.
With a stop-loss even, so if it stops out, it stops out.
That is, that is sick.
What are some of the favorite movies of 2017 so far?
- [Nate] We got Wonder Woman.
(laughs)
- [Nate] We got Beauty and the Beast.
- [Rob] Beauty and the Beast live action.
How could you not enjoy that movie?
- [Nate] And that's it so far.
- [Rob] Trolls.
(laughs)
Probably seen Trolls nine hundred alright
those are good movies.
Let us know in the comments below what your favorite
movie of 2017 was.
And the robots are on sale right now.
If you don't have this robot that
we're talking about today.
- If you, so I'm gonna disable AirParroting
which is what Nate told me to do
when we were done with parrating things.
So, if you don't have the robot,
now is the perfect time to get this robot
and all the other robots.
I can't wait to sit here and back-test a bigger
profit target on some of these trades.
I'm now getting kind of super excited about this
dollar Canadian, and all this testing that we're doing.
I'm so happy that you've been here.
Thanks for watching, thanks for liking,
thanks for subscribing.
Thanks for getting us to over,
I think we're over 14,000 likes on the page now,
on Facebook and that's thanks to you.
So thanks everybody for being here.
Thanks for watching and we'll be back tomorrow
with another video.
I'm Rob Booker and this was the Trader's Lunchbox.
Bye for now everybody.
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