- Hey guys and girls,
Nathan Birch here. Just driving through North Western Sydney,
looking at properties and seeing what's happening
in the market at the moment.
As we can see, there's trucks everywhere.
The streets are lined with all different stuff.
All different civil work is going in.
If you go up the street there,
you'll see that there's building happening everywhere.
There's trucks, and trucks, and trucks.
If you look over here, there's houses being built.
And, you know, what is actually going on?
What is happening with the market for the rest of 2017?
Are we in a bubble?
What is on the cards?
Just a bit from my two cents,
for whatever you value that as,
is what I'm finding is that,
the Australian economy has gone from mining boom
to a construction boom.
And, you know, what is happening out there?
So what my experience is driving around
and looking at these areas on a constant basis
- As we see these big dust clouds
up ahead of us here; tradies everywhere.
There's a lot of shiny utes,
like the one that I'm driving in,
everywhere, everybody's got a brand new ute.
That's because these builders are making lots of money
and that's what's keeping this economy afloat.
So we're not producing anything,
were not making anything,
were not exporting anything.
We're just, living in an economy
where we need to, create something.
So from a housing standpoint,
we've got a need that we need
to bring people into the country.
We need to grow our population
because we're a young country,
and it would be political suicide
for us to slow down immigration, or stop immigration.
People say that, you know, stop having people come in
and then we won't have a housing crisis,
but the crisis would be much greater,
just looking at economics,
due to the fact that we need our taxes paid for.
When people come in, they work, they earn money,
they earn a living;
we need people to come and pay taxes.
So we need people to come in, which would be suicide
for the economy if we didn't have people come in.
We're a young country, so we don't have all
the housing requirements of what we need,
plus we haven't built anything.
A lot of people think that Sydney's in a boom,
or a bubble, or whatever.
If we look at the real fact of
the Sydney property market, the market peaked in 2003;
it went backwards from 2003 to 2009.
When the GFC came, what we found
is that the prices went up, the market increased.
And between 2009 and 2012,
the prices got back
to where they were in 2012, to where they were in 2003.
Looking at the market since 2012 to 2017,
so the last 5 years, it's doubled.
So the market isn't in a bubble or whatever,
we just simply have too many people
and not enough properties.
And we would keep needing to build properties,
and if we stop building these properties,
then we're gonna have a bigger problem down the track
and we'll just be kicking the can down the road.
So either one of two things is going to happen;
Either prices are gonna continue to go along
the trajectory that they're going, or that they won't.
So, if they keep going on the trajectory,
well then we'll solve some of the crises
of what we've got today, and the mess that we're in.
If they go backwards, and then all this boom sort of stops
and the building stops happening,
what we're going to find
is that we're not going to have enough housing,
and it's going to create even a bigger mess.
I remember back in 2011, I pulled some ABS statistics,
and we were short 180,000 dwellings in this country.
I pulled it out going back about six months ago,
we're short now 330,000.
So we need to do something in order for us
to be able to accommodate for people
in this country; and that is to build.
And if we don't build, well then
we're gonna have higher rents.
So either the prices of the housing is going to go up,
or the pricing of the rent is gonna go up.
And for me, I'm happy either way,
because I own lots of properties,
I want to see them go up in value.
And, I own lots of properties
and I want to see the rents go up in value.
You know, there's always opportunities.
I've had people telling me through
some of the baddest times of the markets through the GFC.
You know, I quit my job in the GFC,
I retired from the workforce from the GFC.
You know, there's always an opportunity out there.
And it's important as an investor
- I use the word investor,
I don't use the word property investor
- As an investor, you need to always be conscious
of opportunities and conscious of your position.
If you're just buying a property
and hoping it's going to go up,
well then you're speculating,
you're not being an investor, so take the title away from yourself.
All you're doing is just buying a property
and hoping for the best.
But, if you're an investor,
you will keep your finger on the pulse with all markets.
You will move with the markets.
You will grow with a markets.
You will change your strategy with the markets.
You will look for opportunities,
you'll look to put yourself in a better position.
And in 2017, am I optimistic or pessimistic?
I'm cautious of not making
silly decisions as I always have been.
I am very optimistic, we live in the land of the free
and the land of opportunity,
and this is opportunity all around us.
And people have said that prices are gonna fall,
and the properties are gonna fall, etc.
However, I've seen the prices change over time.
You cannot change the fact
that we have a shortage of properties.
And it's not getting better any time soon.
No matter what we build, we have to play catch-up.
We don't have the manpower to build the catch-up,
we're way behind the 8-ball still.
I see that there's a long time for this market to go ahead.
If the market does stall in whatever fashion,
or slow down a little bit,
there's opportunities for prices to rise,
there's other markets that haven't gone up.
There's markets that are in decline
as we're saying the Sydney market is on the rise.
Did you know that?
Since the Sydney market has gone up,
the areas like Perth and Queensland,
and mining towns and Darwin and stuff,
have gone backwards.
There's opportunities out there,
doesn't matter which way you look at it.
It's depending on what side of the coin you want to look at.
So, I'll leave it with you.
If you do have any questions, or if you do want some help,
make sure to subscribe
to the channel.
And make sure that if you have any questions,
you can call us at 1300 367 925 on the Binvested hotline.
Just on a final note, if we see out where the camera is,
you'll see that there's a big bridge there.
I don't know if you've been blind,
or if you haven't been out into Sydney,
or you just haven't been to Sydney of recent times.
But we're going through a once-in-a-generation
infrastructure boom as well.
This infrastructure is trying to keep up
to the supply of people that there are in the country,
or in the state, in the city.
And looking at this infrastructure, there's heaps of stuff.
There's heaps of stuff that's planned,
that no one even knows about.
This here's the North West Metro,
there's a Western Metro, there's a City Metro.
There's new freeways going,
and there's talks on an M9 freeway,
there's talk of an F6, I think it is.
There's infrastructure going everywhere,
there's stuff needing to be built everywhere.
There's stuff needing to be built for services.
These are not being built
just for the fun of it; it's to play catch up.
And we're going through an infrastructure boom,
we're going through, you know,
a very, very interesting time.
And I don't see this stopping anytime soon.
We could see things get a bit tighter
and the prices plateau out,
but there's a lot of work out there to be done still,
and a lot of money being invested
into this country that we live in.
And, for us to have first-world facilities,
it comes at a first-world problem cost.
I would suggest for those you that are complaining about it,
or waiting for the bubble to pop,
I've heard the same stories 10 years ago.
I'd suggest to stop having Piccolo Latte's,
don't worry your next Contiki tour,
or the next time you're gonna visit Europe.
Make the sacrifices, make the commitment,
pull your finger out of your ass, and buy some properties.
We'll catch up soon, have an awesome day.
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