Hello! In this session, we will be looking at natural resources.
For a long time, physical resources were ignored
in economic theories
because we assumed that nature
was an inexhaustible resource, which is obviously something
advances in science have proven to be untrue.
But as we will see in this seminar, the human race continues
to use natural resources recklessly in the same way as before,
and these resources are quickly becoming depleted,
like nothing was ever there before. Let's look at this in more detail.
There are currently 7.4 billion of us on Earth,
where, as you can see in the graphic on the left, 13 00:00:60,043 --> 00:00:63,803 there were barely 1 billion in 1800. 14 00:00:64,390 --> 00:00:66,000 Over the past two centuries, 15 00:00:66,189 --> 00:01:10,596 there has never been such rapid population growth.
So, why is that?
Before the industrial revolution,
both the death rate and the birth rate were high
in most countries around the world,
but remained more or less equal
meaning that population growth was low.
The high rate of global population growth
since the industrial revolution
can be explained by what we call
demographic transition.
This refers to a sharp drop in the death rate
due to progress in the fields of medicine, hygiene,
health, agriculture,
and food quality, as well as industrialisation.
On the other hand, the birth rate initially remained
as high as before the transition.
The difference between the two
caused these populations to increase sharply.
The birth rate later adapted
to the death rate
and population growth slowed, with the populations
of some countries even decreasing.
Depending on the country,
the demographic transition typically lasts between 50 and 100 years.
It's important to note
that this demographic transition
did not take place at the same time
in different countries and continents.
Sadly, there is still huge disparity
between countries
in terms of access to advances in hygiene, food, etc.
The demographic transition began in Europe,
then spread to the Americas and Asia.
Today, this is happening in Africa, which means
that this is where most of the population growth predicted
for the 21st century will occur.
The accelerated use of fossil fuel energy
also contributed to these changing demographics.
From the start of the industrial revolution in 1850,
use of coal started to increase, followed by oil, then gas.
In agriculture, the invention of the motorised tractor
and oil-based chemical fertilisers
meant the ever-growing population could be fed.
The power of man over nature increased tenfold.
The industrial revolution started in Europe,
then spread first to the US, then slowly to the rest of the world.
Lifestyles were transformed by this thermo-industrial revolution,
starting with developed countries.
Since 1850,
urban populations have increased significantly,
along with consumption of water and fertiliser.
In order to feed these massive urban populations,
intensive agriculture and transport of people and goods are required.
Living standards also went up
alongside mass consumerism in developed countries.
More recently, we have the example of the digital revolution,
which is what made globalisation possible.
IT consumes a lot of energy,
currently, around 10% of electricity produced worldwide.
If we want to maintain our modern way of life,
our society's dependence on natural resources
logically increases with the size of the population,
multiplied by each person's need for the resources.
As we have seen, both are increasing exponentially.
And herein lies the problem,
as most of the planet's natural resources that we rely on
only exist in finite quantities,
and are therefore exhaustible.
Some examples would be oil, uranium,
fresh water and phosphorus,
but also the ecosystems
in the sea and on land and soil for cultivation,
which provide indispensable ecosystem services
that nourish our planet
and regulate the climate.
So, the problem is
that use of natural resources
cannot continue to increase indefinitely.
In 1972,
someone tried to draw a line in the sand,
stating that there are "Limits to Growth".
This was the title of his report.
That someone was an American named Dennis Meadows.
Meadows was ahead of his time.
He was the first to draw attention
to the finite nature
of Earth's natural resources:
drinking water, forests, biodiversity
and fossil fuels, all exist in limited quantities.
The exponential growth
humanity has experienced since the industrial revolution
cannot go on indefinitely:
it will end once the raw materials run out.
Then, the population will decrease
due to the lack of resources and the conflicts that will arise
over access to these diminishing resources.
After 40 years of hindsight,
Meadows' predictions are looking rather accurate.
You will find more detailed information on this
in the documentation provided with this session.
Now we have decided to focus
on three case studies of limited natural resources:
drinking water, biodiversity and oil.
Forests are an ecological resource
that provide a huge number of services for the human race:
wood, fuel,
medicines, CO2 storage,
water purification, and cultivatable soil preservation
to name but a few.
Rainforests are the forests
with the greatest wealth of natural resources.
Since the industrial revolution,
the rate of deforestation has quickly accelerated,
and we have already destroyed more than half of all rainforests.
If we maintain our current level of deforestation,
all the rainforests will be gone by the turn of this century.
This graphic is taken
from the AFD's publication series,
"Questions of Development",
which dedicated its 24th edition
to the overexploitation of groundwater resources.
What does this refer to?
Water tables, which store rainwater
and snowmelt underground,
are our main source of drinking water.
The United Nations organisation
for worldwide water development
calculates that 20% of them are being used too intensively
to be able to regenerate.
The map shows the two areas
that are particularly affected by this overexploitation:
the African continent and the Indian subcontinent.
In these regions, desertification linked to drought
provoke migration and armed conflicts.
In 2013, the UN estimated
that 2.4 billion people, so one in three,
have no access to drinking water.
This should be an accurate figure,
since access to drinking water
is amongst their Sustainable Development Goals.
We will come back to this subject during a later session.
To put a stop to this raid on drinking water,
we urgently need an ecological transition.
We will detail
the outline for such a transition over the coming weeks.
Today, almost 90% of global marine fish stock
are being overexploited, or are nearing their limit.
We can therefore no longer increase production.
The species most threatened
by overfishing are the larger species,
such as tuna and cod,
which are often the most economically beneficial.
These fish are the predators
at the top of the food chain within the ecosystem.
For example, the map on the right
shows the disappearance of these predatory fish
from the coasts of the North Atlantic throughout the 21st century.
Overfishing is not the only cause:
climate change, which will be the subject of our next session,
is also a contributing factor.
There are therefore less fish,
but something just as important is
that entire species are disappearing
due to the knock-on effects within the ecosystem.
When ecosystems are destroyed or disturbed,
there is less biodiversity,
which is serious, because it's irreversible:
we don't know how to bring back a lost species or ecosystem.
We also have no idea how to repopulate the oceans' fish.
Finally, the oil situation is just as troubling.
As with any resource available in a finite quantity,
oil production cannot increase indefinitely.
The moment when oil production reaches its peak
is called "peak oil".
The first oil that we extracted
was the easiest to extract
and cost the least.
It was found in the Gulf States and in the Middle East.
All other types of oil,
such as shale gas or deepwater oil,
are much more difficult to extract.
So, extracting oil will become more costly
and oil resources will become rarer.
By 2100,
the best-case scenario will see us producing the same amount of oil
as in the 1970s.
The recent conflicts in the Middle East
can be analysed as conflicts over access to oil.
In order to estimate when we will reach peak oil,
we need to know
how much extractable oil remains to be discovered on Earth,
which is obviously difficult.
As you can see in this graph,
taking into account both proven and probable oil reserves,
we are at peak oil right now.
And even according to the most optimistic projections
regarding undiscovered reserves, the peak would take place by 2040.
In the documentation,
you will find the concepts of proven and probable reserves defined.
We have reached the end of this session.
We have seen that human pressure on resources
threatens the planet's ecosystems.
In the next session, we'll look at another serious challenge:
climate change. See you soon!
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