SIX MONTHS TO AVOID AN ARMS RACE: What Trump needs to do to halt path to NUCLEAR WAR
DONALD TRUMP announced the US will withdraw from the nuclear weapons treaty but what will
happen next?
Will a new treaty be negotiated in the six-month window?
US President Donald Trump announced the US would be withdrawing from the Intermediate-range
Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, saying: "We will move forward with developing our own
military response options" to Russia's suspect missile.
The announcement has triggered a six month expiration period in which renegotiations
can take place.
So the treaty could be salvaged in that 180-day window but only if Russia destroys all of
its violating missiles, launchers and associated equipment says the President.
In his statement, Trump warned that unless Russia destroyed its missile by August, the
USA "will move forward with developing our own military response options and will work
with Nato and our other allies and partners to deny Russia any military advantage from
its unlawful conduct."
For 32-years a treaty has been in place with the intention of limiting two of the most
powerful countries in the world with their intermediate-range weapons.
However, American politicians have claimed Russia has continued to violate the terms
of the deal with no consequence throughout the treaty.
Neil Clothier, Head of Negotiations at global sales and negotiation skills development company
Huthwaite International explained to Express.co.uk the potential outcomes of negotiations around
the treaty.
Mr Clothier said: "First, it is useful to understand Trump's negotiation techniques
since he has been in office.
"During his time as President, Trump has had very public problems with China, North
Korea and Russia, while also challenging the majority of Europe.
"To say it has been an eventful Presidency term, would be an understatement.
"After implying nuclear war could be an option with North Korea by saying "My [nuclear
weapon] button is bigger than yours" and calling leader, Kim Jong Un a "little rocket
man" we know that Trump has an aggressive form of negotiating.
"In fact, it's a well-trodden technique known as the 'mad man' approach, also
used by President Nixon in the 1960s and 1970s, aimed at emphasising (or over-emphasising
in Trump's case) an initial stance, to help pave the way for a lesser, but related, demand."
But is this 'mad man' technique effective?
It has arguably helped Mr Trump become the first US President to meet North Korea's
head of state - but what about Russia?
Mr Clothier said: "In this case, his threat that if a new treaty isn't negotiated, America
will outspend and out-innovate other countries is arguably designed to frighten Russia and
other countries, like China, into negotiating a new treaty before the six-month withdrawal
period – whether he intends to carry out his threat or not.
"This is a classic case of leverage – or implied leverage – aimed at giving Trump
the upper hand without him having to necessarily follow through.
"So, following this thinking, if Trump's main aim is to open talks with Russia and
China to create a new treaty that all countries will abide by – including serious consequences
if broken – then we should expect to see America bringing great incentives to the table
to interest all parties.
"This could include a shared security intelligence or even an allied relationship."
However, the US President is dealing with a similar 'strong man' in Russia's leader,
Vladimir Putin - so this approach is risky.
Mr Clothier said: "In business – and the wider political world – effective negotiation
is about compromise and securing a win-win for both parties.
"Unsurprisingly, it is also essential for both parties to be willing to negotiate.
"However, if Russia is already refusing to cease making missiles, then this doesn't
exactly lay the most productive foundations for a negotiation.
"To effectively move forward, the key thing would be for both Trump and Putin to reconsider
their approach to negotiations and head back to the original treaty as a starting point.
"Trump should be acutely aware that Russia can be expected to play 'dirty negotiation
tricks' from the outset, such as delaying negotiation talks until the very end of the
treaty so America would be more willing to concede on points with a looming deadline."
There are only six months until the current treaty is abandoned and both countries will
be free to make weapons with no consequences.
Mr Clothier said: "This is something that many countries will want to avoid – not
least as many critics claim it would be the first step to a global arms race.
"To implement a new treaty in time, the next few weeks will be vital when it comes
to offering insight into what the other countries stances may be when considering a new treaty.
"Importantly, this should see Trump looking to increase pressure on countries, and he'll
likely do this by selling the benefits of joining a treaty and promoting the consequences
of not having one in place.
"However, when negotiations actually begin, Trump will need to be much more reserved.
Negotiations are built on a diplomatic and strategic approach.
"If Trump strikes a careful balance between strength and cooperation, there is an opportunity
for prolonged and sustainable success.
"Whether that will happen – only time will tell – but for Trump, and Global politics,
the consequences of getting it wrong could be devastating."
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