hey guys I wanted to talk to you today about is there an upcoming recession and
the different aspects of it this is the third time I've started this video
because and actually I did over an hour of video on it that I just I can't I
can't I don't feel safe I don't tell like it's the right video to load
although it was all pertinent it was like it's a huge thing if you think
about it in segments now with this last recession that we went through it was
the toughest and this doesn't have to be that kind of recession the other
recessions I went through was no big deal I don't know how this one's going
to turn out yet not sure y'all could go so many different directions and there's
so many different hands inside of it that we just don't know yet but this
does have the precursors of the last recession during the last recession I
was going gangbusters nine trucks before hand I had bought three or four in the
previous year actually and I was making great money right
my trucks were all leased on at a percentage company I wasn't running my
authority like I had been in previous ones but I was at at CR HT actually
doing really well but I noticed around September or October of the previous
year that the the rates were dropping and the Freight was getting scary as
scarce now these companies they all have these giant pools of freight setting in
yards all over the place being stored on trailers we are now the we're not just
truck drivers our companies are storage facilities for Freight
now when Lehman Brothers first hit and started going down that was a real good
precursor what was going on now fuel was also going up but that's
that wasn't a bad thing since I was at a carrier it's hard not to get onto off
topic on this because there's so many different avenues to go in the fact that
I had substantial investments during this time was one things that helped me
survive it I had a huge money pour at my back because I've been saving money for
a long time saving money is real important however you're saving it or
making it or whatever on the sidelines because these are sidelines but the
second when Lehman tanked I held on to my stock and I had bought it at good
prices and I always go back to leaning because such good a good precursor and
then I did a little balance thing right and I sold it on the balance and I ended
up not losing very much money some but not a lot a huge amount around December
of 2008 or whatever year was the other nine I decided to go back into Lehman
because it was at such a horrible low that I figured I could parlay what I had
made and I did right so I stuck it back in there when it dropped down terribly
low and then a few months later four they were I was sweating bullets that
during this whole time right it jumped back up for a few days and I resold that
profit and there was a whole timeframe I had to wait a specific in my time before
I could buy or sell or anything right so when I sold I ended up making another
really big cash cow off of LeMans demand actually maybe I should feel bad for
that but I don't think so it was my money I'm a woman's gambling
it now the precursors to these kind of recessions are they working a certain
way right like I said you don't generally know if you're not keeping
your fingers on the pulse of of many different sectors that things are
tanking now if you're keeping your pulse on it you can see what's coming ahead
you know watching the price of oil it can go up or down in a recession but it
will ultimately go back up right but you look at things like a little bit of
hyperinflation going on that's never good and you want a steady economy
otherwise you have to ride the highs just like that right you skip skip boys
and you can you keep keep going but when you've only look at certain things like
oh my god freight rates are so high volume is up if you've been looking at
that for you for the last few years and going everything is great I've been
looking at it for the last few years saying it's getting ready to tank
because that's what it does it in flights and it falls in flights and
false and it's been inflated so high so high that's why I haven't run out and
bought more trucks in the last few years by the low self the high and that's what
I always play that right I'll but I'll end up buying Darrin during her low more
trucks I'll run them for a year two years whatever right if I see it if I
see the process leveling out next time but then it starts dipping again then
I'll sell them again but recessions always have precursors like five or six
months out from the recession you'll have a dip or two years out they'll have
a big dip and then you'll come back up everything can't stay high and I know
you may not punish than that but what I want you to do is
do some googling about precursors to recessions I'm not going to sit here and
read all this stuff to you that would mean I would have to write I'm not good
at that so if you if you look up precursors to recessions
financial markets look into the oil prices and and what those things can do
because we're going into this recession you know it could pull back tomorrow and
we could have it reprieve from it reprieve from it and not dip in so bad
but that's that that only means that the government is interacting with the
economy in a way to try to alleviate things which is technically bad if you
look at you're paying twenty years twenty five years ago they had a
recession they never came out of it because the government keeps their hands
meddling in it and that's that's probably what will happen this time
now you can't set you can't think that the gut I heard someone say this the
other day if it gives any worse well it can't get any worse it can get terribly
worse if we're down 38% right now in Freight volume in the first of February
well it was in January Milton mill January all right back up to June to
September in September September you are going into the strongest section of the
year biggest sales biggest everything right so September to the 15th of
January should be her hottest and heaviest great volume rates everything
this year why should say last year however you
want to play it this time around in September Freight volumes and freight
rates were already falling big sale all through work now today's the 1st of
February 2019 and they're still falling to experienced person this
tells me that it's gonna get worse unless tariffs are lifted that could
help it a little bit we're gonna start seeing the failing of some businesses
harley-davidson could be the one of the very first ones which you think over
that are huge no they are not but they are publicly traded there they have a
lot of support worldwide but holidays soon could be the first one hit and
they'll blame it on the tariffs but it's just part of doing business you don't
get it say oh it's because of this it's a cycle I predict Harley will go under
and someone will snap them up at a deal or snap up their stock and and
reorganize the company and then they'll start making some more affordable bikes
because we all know Harley is terribly overpriced as a motorcycle rider I will
tell you they are terribly overpriced now when they will be the first domino
what you also have to look for is other dominoes along the way now like they
stress test the banks now but after what happened in the last last recession I
don't trust the stress tests because the banks are still carrying a huge amount
of bad debt now see here's how I keep getting off-topic
I'll explain bad debt to you back in the day banks would not take give out loans
on things that they consider to be bad debt it was gambling somewhere along the
way they started leveraging bad loans they
could only leverage a certain amount then the government came in and said hey
we have Bernie Mac loans or whatever they're called and for any fav loans or
whatever right so we'll let you carry this bad debt but you have to carry what
we consider and those those let those debts are also considered bad debt bad
debt so the government bundled these things and they gave them to the banks
and they said you have to carry this up this amount
they're still doing that none of that's changed the total way that they're still
doing business has not changed with the banking industry now we have bubbles
inside of bubbles inside of bubbles truck loans given loans that maybe
shouldn't be given out giving out housing loans that maybe shouldn't be
given out because no one has the skin in the game right I'm always the student
debt loan problem is a huge bubble if it was to pop tomorrow it would you would
see another huge recession and that's that's just how it works and that's
something that could happen this time around the student debt could be called
and it would and it what they couldn't be paid so it would just cause another
big my session today step your way the first like I said in let's say mid-march
somewhere in that time frame all of these yards that have large
stockpiles of trailers that are full of of commodities right those yards will
probably be emptied out if they don't have orders and money then those
trailers will not be refilled can you see what the recession is all about now
that if you're with the mega carrier and you're rolling up in there and picking
up those loads it's not a live load most time because it's preloaded that's great
right now when we talk about running two mega carriers this is where you're going
to have to play it tight during the recession you may have to run to a mega
carrier and if you run to a mega carrier that pays a percentage and if you're
getting there their loads and not their logistics load then you'll still get a
good percentage all right now remember these lots are full of stuff that's
getting shipped they're not reloading the trailers at the ball
volume that they was pre-recession right so at some point don't be afraid to jump
ship if you're at that mega carrier getting a percentage and they run out of
Freight jump to a jump to a mileage contract secondly right but they're
going to those guys are gonna be at the same in the same position if you've ever
been leased on with their carrier and you've been sitting there for three days
and you're like there ain't no load on the boards if you can run boards and
most people do not know how to do that or cannot do it if the company says well
we have a load for you but don't look for three days that's that's still their
contractual Freight that you're going to get a better rate on and unless their
contract is up so you're sitting there waiting and everybody's it's angry
that's a very hard time for all of us to sit there and wait for these loads but
you can't always find anything and we get we're mad at them they're trying to
service their customers now where it really gets bad in these hard times as
things get harder is that these mega carriers that have 5,000 10,000 company
drivers and they have a thousand 1200 1500 whatever least operators they may
tell you it's first-come first-serve but I've seen it happen so many times you're
next up in line and the next date they pull the love and give it to a company
driver or a lease operator or something like that that's self-preservation you
got to expect that so while this recession comes into play you always
constantly need to be searching and pecking for the next better deal I'm not
one to jump companies but in this timeframe you might have two that really
helped me that I had so many trucks the last time around that I would send them
out in different directions to different companies you know LTL carriers do
better in a recession in a lot of ways because a lot of things they still pay
full truckload on otherwise they're selling pieces of your trailer and that
works pretty good it's always worked real well for me like
when I I have my trailer and I sell the top deck and I okay you're gonna pay me
four thousand dollars from my top deck take it from here to here but I don't
have to be there for X amount of days and then I put something else to take on
another 15 feet of deck space right I'm gonna charge them full truckload for
that I'm not gonna I won't some people charge much lower but I
don't and I know that you that does not this is not gonna affect me in any way
it would have to go on for a long time to affect me but I know that's gonna
affect a lot you guys and that really worries me it's like going to a party
and everyone got drunk before they got to the party and I got there and through
it it's kind of how a recession place because so many people jump in the game
of whatever sector that they're in Deering the party or before they get
there to get high on the thought of it and then when they get there and they
realize that they're two hours late and they're sick and or whatever the party's
over - right away you get you start with the party before the party ride it to
the top and everything in there how you play that ride is part of it I was just
reading some articles on a bunch of other things in this in our sector and
it's it's this was forecasted it was forecasted in our sector for a few more
months down the road we're going into it way faster than
anyone expected in the big names in the sector the piece of the people that that
have their fingers to our pulse I'll probably elaborate more on this next
week or in a short period of time maybe give you a little history of the last
recession what can pull you out of it is if fuel does jack up and it's supposed
to that won't hurt you know it'll kill you if you run the spot market and
you're not factoring that in but if you're running for a company leased to
them or whatever you'll do great because you slow down and you'll get
that big money for the fuel surcharge everything is included in what you have
to think about in this market but I will keep saying it tighten your belt tighten
your belt at home and look for better options just keep your eyes open for the
better option you're going to find them options
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