so in previous years I've produced a lot of content on Cheltenham and some of its
pretty extensive so what I've decided to do this year is to compact that into one
shorter video so if you want to watch that and get a gist for all of the
things that go on at Chatham and a little bit more depth then watch the
rest of this video but what I'm also going to do for you as well is include
links to them in the end screen so that you can watch the full version of those
if you so wish to do so so all that it remains me for me to say
is I hope you have a great Cheltenham so it's Cheltenham again it only seems like
well I don't know a year ago since it was Cheltenham last time around but
Charlie MS one of my favorite meetings of the year it's a meeting that can get
really stuck into but more importantly what's the detail behind showing how
much is it going to turn over how do the markets behave that's what we're going
to talk about in this video please like and comment on the video below that will
allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them in the future if
you're interested in learning to trade successfully in sports then why not
visit the bet angel' Academy where we have more detailed videos Sabet fair are
doing a challenge review this evening I don't think there's much value here
really for somebody that's trading apart from you know it's interesting to get
involved with the racing community it's interesting to see how many people are
here making notes and so on and so forth when in fact if they were trading they
would be able to make a profit regardless if any of the stuff that's
being told plants evening but it's it's fascinating actually to see that you
know that's the feeling that I've got this evening is that there are all these
people taking all these notes and advice when in fact a lot of it is reasonably
unpredictable and yet we'll be able to see on the day of the race when people
are backing in how much they're backing and be able to profit I'm pretty sure
I'll be able to do that I've done it for many years now but yeah it's interesting
it's interesting meeting all these people seeing what they're talking about
and how they're approaching it and I think it's it's fascinating to be able
to have a look at this side of the industry but also you look at the amount
of time they're spending on each of these individual races and you know
they're obviously doing it for legitimate reasons but I think that in
terms of picking winner I'm not sure how much value out there is because the
market is generally reasonably accurate anyway and if they were doing it to
figure out who's gonna win I think the markets got that reasonably accurate and
if they're doing it for money and they should try it anyway it's an interesting
news so Cheltenham is one of my favorite race
meetings of the year you tend to go through a lot of the winter with not a
lot of activity going on where things seem to be quite quiet you've got some
pretty awful markets and nothing really seems to happen so Cheltenham is you
know really the thing that kick-starts the whole year for me February is quite
quiet and then as we head into March Chellam is the obvious highlight on the
racing calendar now I've been trading challenge since 2004 so 13 years ago was
when I first traded Chapman and started keeping detailed records on it and it's
interesting actually if you look back at 2004 you'll notice actually 30 you know
the markets aren't radically different really from back then the amount of
volume that was available the amount of you know because one of the
characteristics of Chatham is that you get outsized money on either side of the
book and on this image that you can see from 2004 you can see that there's the
best part of sort of 30,000 on either side and this is the thing that stands
out with Charnin is that some of the money on either side of the book will be
absolutely massive search trains very differently from most of the
conventional meetings that you will see some people love it some absolutely
hated so typically this is what you would tend to see in Chum there though
there's so much money going through the market that even a large order won't
disrupt the price that much everybody knows the
forum line of these horses they tend to be well understood people tend to know
what price they should be everybody's betting on them
nobody's exposing themselves to adverse risk so the price tends to be pretty
static they tend to be slow markets so if you expecting the price to go from
170 to 260 such as you would find on an all-weather meeting probably not going
to happen a child oh yeah nothing's impossible but it's much less likely at
a large meeting like this you can see on this image that we've got here that
there are a couple of large order spikes and it's had no impact on price and
that's typically what we tend to find that chart number especially in the more
competitive races when you get to shorter prices you'll tend to find them
market will move around a bit a little bit but when it does move it will be
decisive so you may at a lower quality meeting tend to be able to get away with
the price moving up and then coming back yeah Chatham it tends to move up but and
we'll never fully retrace because you run out of time the moves are slower and
more deliberate so you have to be more certain about your trade that you're
doing at Chatham and you attend to have to stick to it if you back more than one
runner if you do a Dutch bet then you're going to capture a lot of that value at
much much less risk so it's interesting if we look at the
performance of the individual runners from the favourites to the tenth
favourites if you can call it that thing from runner one to run a ten in all sort
of however you want to describe that but the interesting then that comes out of
the statistic we'll put this image up and this image is basically saying based
upon the odds that were available at the off
did we win or lose money by backing it so the interesting thing is you can see
there's lots of deep green on runner one on the favourites so that's basically
saying if you back to the favorite of Chatham generally that may eat a bit of
money which is quite interesting that seems to be a characteristic that's
dominant over a number of years now I can't readily explain that but that
seems to imply the favourites there are available it was a stupendous prices on
the exchange but if you look at runners 2 to 6 you tends to find that they're
not as good value so so that's sort of slightly anomalous as well although you
can see there's some you we're up some years weather down and so
on and so forth but look at that little window between runners seven and ten if
you look at that window you can actually see that there is some value there so if
you're dutching the favorite seems to be good value and runners seven and upwards
but for some reason once you go beyond 10 runners it tends to go back into
decline so you know that there's a sweet spot there between runners 7 and 10 for
the odds available at that price versus their chance of winning the race seemed
to be moderately favorable now of course we're in a small sample say hey we've
got 7 years worth of data but it was an interesting anomaly and one that I
thought I'd point out to you if you're not backing the favorites then maybe
dutching a combination of these runners may actually produce a result for you if
you look at where the winners come from obviously predominantly its favorites
but you can see there's a mixture of different results here and there are
quite a few winners that come a little bit further down the field so you know
that's that's quite interesting in itself as well and that sort of probably
reflective and what we see in those numbers that we've just seen as well but
yeah you know again I put this up there for you just out of interest really I'm
not going to use this for any particular reason but nonetheless I thought you may
get some interest in having a look at those numbers now in terms of how
certain trades we would we have had this discussion at beginning of this video
when we're talking about how it generally behaves but one of the
characteristics that I've noticed over previous years at 2 now is that the
average traded range is expanding so if you look at the average traded range of
the favorite what you tend to find is that it's gradually getting wider so
this tends to go against or be less favorable to people who are trying to
nip in and out for a tick and it tends to be more favorable to people who are
trying to pick a direction so if you're trading a direction and that's the style
that you used to you may find that there are more opportunities this year you
know if if we hate extrapolating things but you can sort of see that there is a
trend here basically the markets are getting slightly more volatile over time
and in fact when you start looking at the way that the markets behave that
seems to be a factor that's predominantly limited to the favorite
than the money on the favour is quite high and that seems to be
pushing the price around a lot more than it used to
now the interesting thing is if you actually go a little bit further down
the field if you go to run us to - I'm trying to remember what it is here about
2:00 to 10:00 that volatility drops off again so if you're trading the favorite
expect a bit of movement but if you're not trading the favorite that movement
is being really fairly consistent over a number of years so it's the favorite
that tends to be moving more nowadays than anything else so if you get into
trouble on that you're not enjoying it and then skip and move down the field a
little bit it's only when you get above sort of runner 13:14 that the average
amount of tics that it moves starts to get a little bit wild again so yeah it's
it's an interesting point and one that I picked up when I was analyzing the data
is that the average traded range is getting much bigger if you're looking at
laying the fields I'm here with some stats for laying the field again I would
impress upon you that the in running markets behave differently a child and
they're not the same as you would typically tend to expect and therefore
you need to lower your expectations in terms of the activity that you expect to
happen they tend to be much less variable and the market tends to
decisively go for something when it's in running whether it's rowing badly or
well and there tends to be less opportunity there so yeah quite a long
video there's lots of stats in there you can pick and choose which ones are of
interest to you but I hope that that has been of some interest to you and I'm
hoping that you're gonna have a good chairman I really liked this meeting I'm
gonna really go for it and on the feature races I'm gonna try
and get a really stupendous result having a better post up some of those
for you but it tends to be a week that's quite intense for me so I'm quite
relieved when the week is over because the expectation is high I have to
deliver to that expectation and I'm just glad when it's finished typically the
only year where things went really wrong was in 2008 because we actually had a
child I'm abandoned for one day there and they tried to crunch all of the
meetings into the second day from the first and the second day into one day
and that was a bit of a mess to be honest that was a year
that I remember quite well in terms of being difficult but most of the other
years have generally conformed to what we expect over time so anyway hope some
of that's been useful to you I'm looking forward to really giving a good go next
week and hopefully able to report back to you on how things are going but check
out the forum keep in touch on social media and so on and you'll be able to
get an idea as to how the markets are behaving in anything unusual that we've
seen so it's Thursday morning we're halfway through Chapman and so far it's
been fairly predictable I think in terms of the way that the markets have evolved
they look very similar to last year with a couple of exceptions which we'll talk
about in a bit the turnover in the first two days was almost exactly the same as
last year which is a bit of a surprise we sort of expected it to be around
there but I didn't expect it to be absolutely on the nose in terms of
turnover being exactly the same that seems a bit odd to me you'd expect a bit
of natural variability so to see the first two days exactly the same volume
was the previous yeah it just strikes me a slightly strange so I got off to a
funny start on Tuesday because of course you know
Chatham Aintree roi Alaska where people ask me for tips so I looked at the card
on Tuesday and I realized there was a horse in there lay back that it refused
to start repeatedly so I said well if you're gonna do anything just don't back
that horse because it's not going to win because it won't even start the race and
of course it won so this is why you get to look a mug repeatedly because if you
try and offer tips its if it fails people will let you know and if it wins
then people say well you know simple choice really wasn't it so yeah that was
hilarious and that explains also why I don't punt
and I preferred straight because of course I made money on the race and it
was an irrelevance whether that horse started or not but so far the you know
if I look at the two days I it's sort of mixed I'm trading on two I'm not trading
on Betfair and bet Dec at the same time and I'm predominately using a couple of
different strategies and I'm doing some automation as well so it's
pleat chaos in here so generally during that period when all of the races are on
I'm probably going to be a little bit busy to be able to comment but I will
pop up and you know say things as they go along
but generally I'll review things at the end of the day and then look at things
going forward and reflect on what's happened over the day but because of all
of that activity I'm tend to be pretty tied up for long
periods of time and it's getting quite intense and also as I said in the video
of the preview what I'm tending to do is get involved in the markets a lot
earlier than I used to as well so I've just been looking at the first race of
the day behind me here and watching some of the activity on that and that that
was quite interesting to have a quick look at that I've just seen some unusual
stuff going on on the second favorite so I'll make a note of that and carry on
but typically I am trading for quite extended periods of time typically it's
5 to 10 minutes before the off and at Cheltenham I will go for a good half an
hour perhaps with different positions depending upon the style of the market
when you look at the big markets that we've had through so far they've been
necessarily on the real short priced favourites so we had a winner on Tuesday
at a very very short price and then we had the shock of do van not winning
yesterday but you know I have to say I would know it's not a strategy or
whatever pursue backing horse at very very short odds especially over the
jumps because you never know what's going to happen and obviously there was
a lot of speculation about what happened with do van and the yard came out last
night and said he was lame potentially at the back so you know not sort of
thing that you would catch me jumping on I don't cost and also when they're at
very short price isn't particularly at Cheltenham you tend to find that in fact
the markets generally pretty accurate overall and it generally gets the odds
more or less right and there's very little variability in it and so I
wouldn't suggest necessarily laying things of typically short odds at
Cheltenham because the market is probably there or there abouts however
you know if you see incredibly heavy backing of something then that may be
something you want to oppose so what is the secret that I have been hiding well
according to that contacted me I must be a time
traveler from another dimension why well if we look back at Cheltenham last week
there were 28 races and miraculously on BET's DAC I managed to win on all 28 and
a little bit of dialogue followed with this person who basically said that the
only way that they could have possibly happened if I had come from another
dimension where time travel was possible now but of course we know that trading
is a great way of profiting from sports and in particular racing is my favorite
niche and when you look at the odds they are pretty spectacular to be honest so
if we look at the total if predicting every single winner at channel must
recall 28 if you would have put a pound on that the accumulator would have
returned 185 octillion whatever your stake was which would of course been
quite large sort of as in bigger than the entire universe which is quite handy
because obviously I come from a different one if we rationalize that a
bit better obviously trading is all about profiting
from the movement in price from one place to another but however you know
maybe that could have been a complete fluke as well however if we take two to
the power of 28 in other words we say there's a 50/50 chance whether I'm going
to profit or not that comes out at 268 million to one chance of getting all of
them in a row so that's pretty large as well to be honest isn't it
so necessarily I mean you can do the maths if you're into maths or you've got
a spreadsheet or you want to fiddle around and work with these things you
can actually begin to work out roughly where my strike rate is likely to be
although I have to say to go the entire week or the entire festival because it
wasn't a full week is actually not generally expected and in fact I came
very close if you actually look the list of results from bed to deck you
can scroll from the bottom to the top and you'll see there are a couple of
moments there where I skirted very close to the edge of not being able to get a
profit however generally you can see that I did and some of those lots are
pretty good and fairly consistent as well so overall you know I think that
last week went pretty well and it went very well on bet stack doing the clean
sweep it's one of those great moments that I enjoy with trading where you
achieve something that's a little bit special
because even I the beginning of the week would have felt that it was probably
unlikely that I would be able to trade every race to a profit and you know a
couple of them were very very close indeed to not making that profit but it
was a wonderful thing to achieve so yeah I was pretty happy at the end of the
week and everything Conn bets DAC oh sorry bet DAC Betfair went pretty
well as well so I have to say that the festival in its entirety it was pretty
good I'm pretty pleased with the way that the whole thing went
you
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