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okay thats cool
Finally we're here
I'm going to tell you what we are actually doing here in Namibia
Problems we were expecting to encounter
and those
that we didn't expect
So if someone asks me "Adrian what are you doing there in Namibia"
I'm saying
We are doing research about forestry
deforestation so to say
How farmers in villages decide and which kinds of incentives we can give them to not cut down the forest
That's not completely correct
We are observing the individuals behaviour
This has a lot to do with psychology
so the field of behavioural economics is tackling this subject
Of course it would make much more sense to just visit a village, look at the satellite pictures
look at the satellite pictures
and tell the people they would get payments or even fertilizers it they do not cut the forest
then you return after three years and observe the changes
and compare these changes to a village where you didn't give any incentives to not cut the forest
This would be possible
This method is called Randomized Controlled Trial
The disadvantage is that it is very expensive
and that we don't have the needed resources
What we are doing are Economic Field Experiments
This means that we expect the people in the villages here
here to make more realistic decisions
because the deal with these problems in their everyday live
than compared to students who make those decisions in the lab
We are just playing a game with the participans
where we ask them whether they want to clear and start a new field for higher yields
or to stay on their old field and protect the forest
A field on freshly cut forestland simply yields more harvest
Maybe one could defuse this problem with fertilizers
though most people in the villages do not have enough money for this measure
Which is why forest is being cut
But actually the forest is pretty important
Globally-in respect to climate change
Locally- the villagers can let their cattle graze, collect firewood and tinder from the forest
and the forest protects against desertification
The economist call this a "social dilemma"
If a single farmer clears forest area
there will still be enough forest for his cattle to graze
Though if everyone thinks like that the forest won't hold for long
Before we come to the experiments, we have got to take care of some things
Obvious things like Workvisa, financing, flights, accommodation and so on aside
we cant understand the local languages
Therefore we need reliable coworkers who speak the languages that are spoken here
who don't have a problem with driving from village to village for several days
sleeping in tents
and who can talk confidently in front of a big audience during the village meeting
We were pretty lucky
to find Cypriaan, Moses and James as great coworkers
though we had some who left early
Expression that we use on a daily base
have to be translated into a simple English
and then into the local languages
We have to make sure that at least the majority of the people understands
what we are doing here
Once you have started conducting data, you can't change anything from the protocol
without deleting previously conducted data
Everything that we tell the people has to be evaluated carefully
even small movements
every suggestion
everything can potentially bias the results
Once, for example, we were discussing for three days
how to correctly translate the word "game" into RuKwangali
randomize
In order to rule out the selection bias,
we have to make sure to randomly select all the villages we visit from a excel tabular
It can happen that we have to drive into the most remote locations
just because they were selected
Once we had to almost drive into a lion area and got stuck in the sand
we drove into the forest 4 hours ago
to search for a specific village, and found out that this village
is inhabited by only one household
We also choose our participants randomly
which means that we sometimes
have a grandpa as participant who doen not understand what we explain
Hey Adrian , how do you think this will be working?
You go to the village, introduce yourself to the headman
and ask if you he can organize a village meeting next Wednesday?
Exactly like that.
But wait. Beforehand we have to visit the king/queen of the respective region.
The Hompa
We have to explain our research and ask for permission to conduct the study
We finally reached the village meeting
The villagers have gathered, typically under a large tree
We pray together then we introduce ourselves, the headman addresses his people
and then Cypriaan and Moses explain what we are going to do
There will be a bag going around, people draw cards
Red, Blue, White depending on their group
So we split the people into treatment groups
explain the rules, make sure that everyone understood the game
and test if they understood and then the game can start
After everyone has made their decision
there will be a survey
We ask questions to everyone: age, eduation, trust
Meaning the trust to other participants or the village
We do all of it with this app
As soon as we have collected our data
they are freely available for us and we can start with statistical, econometric calculatons
you think that you are finally there
gathered almost all data, look at the dataset
after the first statistical calculations you realize:
there are no significances, no effects
all hypotheses
but wasn't everything just perfect?
this is when you start asking yourself
where you could have done something wrong
One comes up with crazy theories: maybe I did something wrong there, said something wrong
mistranslations?
did we have a misleading translation for the word "game"?
does the whitemaneffect
for me diferently that for my research colleague Chris?
because I might look more arabic
at this point it would be easy to manipulate the data
you would just have to cut out the data that doesn't fit to yout hypothesis and argue that they somehow do not fit in there
this is where you have to be honest
it's not the significances on the paper who matter in the end
but the knowledge
I'm back in germany by now
we did put the people into treatment groups
meaning the different groups had different possibilities to communicate
previous literature shows that
more communication leads to more social behaviour and cooperation
meaning forest will be protected more frequently
but with our research we seem to have found a phenomenon
that wasn't observed before
what it is: we cant tell yet
first we have to prove it in a scientifically correct manner
meaning not in this video
what we can say though:
no one was expecting these results
what will this project achieve once it is done?
researchers can use these insights
on the other hand
and this we can only hope
that governments and NGOs the our results to their advantage
and implement it into future policies
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