so there's something that I do arm tennis matches that allows me to trade
them more effectively into C key points within a match and I think I may have
snuck one of these in on a video at some point in the past but I thought it was
about time that I talked about exactly what I do and how it can help you trade
a tennis match please like and comment on the video below that will allow me to
produce better quality videos and more of them in the future if you're
interested in learning to trade successfully in sports then why not
visit the BET angel' Academy where we have more detailed videos so one of the
things that I do when I'm trading tennis is I get bet angel' using the export P&L
reports to monitor how a particular position is going and I do this in a lot
of markets actually but more particularly in tennis because it
illustrates very clearly where key points are within a tennis match and how
I could have trade any more effectively you may have seen me tweet or blog how
well something would have traded and the reason that I do that is not to sort of
say oh this is how much money you could have made because that's pretty obvious
if you if you make a perfect trade but it's there to basically sort of say well
this is interesting this is an interesting moment an interesting point
that occurred within this event or over a series of events and I've done this in
all my trading for as long as I can possibly remember and it's because I
want to learn how to trade better so what I do is I'll trade a horserace I'll
trade a tennis match or I'll do a football match or I'll do something in
some event but while I'm doing it better angel will actually monitor what's going
on within the market so I measure the high point in the low point and what
happened and all of those things but I also do one other thing which is I get
it to export how much profit I've made at any one particular point within that
match and then I can actually go back and look and see where the key points
were within that much and if I could have improved it now often what I do as
well as I'll get betting jille and I attempted to do this on the Australian
Open tennis a lot I'll go into bet angel I'll get it to place a bet for me as the
match is due to start and then it would just track what
happens to that position from a training perspective over the course of the
entire match and that produces a thing that I call a profit graph and the
profit graph will allow me to analyze and look at the match after it's
finished to tell me what I could have done better
within that match now the interesting thing is that when you do this what you
will find is that you'll see the profit swinging from one side to the other
repeatedly over the course the match and that's a great characteristic a tennis
user to get a get out of jail card in a lot of matches repeatedly so even if you
get your initial trade wrong as the match progresses then it eventually
turns into a profit because the match swings one way or the other now of
course there are a number of matches where that never happens you start over
here and then the price just plunges away and never returns so when you're
actively trading tennis what you tend to find is that you get some good matches
where you get many opportunities to trade in and out of a particular
position and then you'll get a match where it just doesn't work and when it
just doesn't work I'd shrug my shoulders and just go well it didn't work but I
know that I will get back more profit than that on another match at some
particular point now rather than try and describe to you to camera exactly what a
profiting graph is and what it does I thought it would be better to actually
look at one and then actually describe what you're looking at within that
particular chart but it's something that I do repeatedly when I gather data on a
match I've gathered data on our dinner how many tens of thousands probably
hundreds of thousands of matches I've done this on and it allows me to look
back at a match and figure out where our key point is in the match and what I
should have done and how I could have anticipated it and that's how I picked
up and what I need to do during a tennis match
so anyhow let's have a look at Graff so here's a profit graph of a
match between Peng and Wozniacki and I'll explain what you're looking at on
this that particular screen so let me draw a line first so over on the left
hand side here you can see this is obviously the start of the match because
the profit and loss is zero and then excuse me over on the right hand side of
here is at the end of the match so you can see here that was near key lost this
match because it ended up at minus 100 so you can also see that we were trading
with a 100 pound stake on this particular example so I probably wasn't
trading this market I was just put a hundred pound stake in just to see what
happens and then to get the results out of the back end of here but if we draw a
line across at zero you can see approximately that this is the baseline
this is where you would make neither a prophet nor a loss on this particular
occasion and as a consequence this would be the sort of medium line where the
match I mean that's not particularly straight there let me redo that again
there we go that's a bit better this is the line where you would make neither a
prophet nor a loss at any one particular point and when you look at this
particular match you can see that there are a couple of obvious moments that
occurred within here so you can see the way that the market is going up and down
at any individual point and these are obviously the key points that occurred
within the match but essentially what you're saying is that if you look at the
match from a trading perspective you're effectively saying that anything above
the line here if we just sort of shade to this in temporarily over here is some
a position that necessarily is favorable to Wozniacki so you can see we can color
those bits in and we can say that if we backed Wozniacki at this particular
point these would be moments at which the match
would be favorable for her if we had a trading position on her those are the
points in which the match would be favorable and if we back to Peng or late
was knee a key you can see these are the points within the match where it was
favorable for a profit on paying so you can also see from there that obviously
the way the match progressed and you can check this for the stats and so on is
that there's a critical point within the match here where their momentum swings
from one player to the next but also if you're looking at the match from a
number of perspectives I mean we can break it down to a much narrower view in
terms of what happens within the match because if we look at this point here
this would be a point at which was knee a key was broken and then you can see
was knee a key goes a break up here and then it goes back to Peng breaks back
and then wasn't he actually breaks back again Peng breaks back here Wozniacki
runs away with it with the set there and then you can see that it swings back
completely the other way so if we count the number of arrows who go got one two
three four five six seven significant swings there and then the the match
swings back again in was new Yankees favor at this particular point before
finally swinging down and finishing with a bit more certainty towards Peng so
this this is why trading tennis is interesting because if we backed or laid
at the start here above that line means that we would have profited if Wozniacki
went to win so we're saying anything above the line here so it could be this
point it could be that point it could be any of these points over here or even
this point over here any of these would have produced a potential profit for us
at some point if we would have banked Wozniacki now if we were to back to Peng
or late Wozniacki you can see we could profited here here around this
particular point here and then of course she actually ended up winning the match
as well so can you see this is why tennis is appealing because it swings
backwards and forwards repeatedly as they try and head towards the end point
over on the far side they're all looking to win the match but there's many many
different ways in which the match can actually be won
so when you look at these graphs it's very easy to sort of tally up where the
key points within the market are and why those particular points occurred and
rather than just looking at it from a profit above or below zero which we're
looking over here at the zero line this is where we started with nothing and
there was no profit on either side and then the line obviously follows above
that it's perfectly possible he could have traded it in a number of different
ways he could have trade it on both sides of it but you have to say that the
possibility of getting each one of these calls absolutely nailed on is probably
unlikely however you can see that as the match progressed we can draw points
between all of the areas within the match where the match swung one way or
the other or there was a points within the match where it looked likely that
somebody was going to get broken in serve or if you want to take it from an
extreme you could just pick off the extremes in each of these and sort of
say well when we reach the first extreme which would be a breakup or very likely
to win the set then that may be the point at which we reverse the position
and take it back in the other direction or it could be when we come off of a big
point within the game and it swings back the other way and goes back to parent
again maybe that's the point which you decide to join but by looking at these
graphs correlating it to score you get a good feel and understanding of roughly
where you need to be at any one particular point in the match making
broad calls in terms of when somebody's a break or a set up allows you to sort
of benefit from a move that occurs in between those individual points but also
if the market starts to head back in the other direction there's no reason why
you couldn't catch it going the other way
so it's a good sort of way of illustrating where all of the key points
are within a tennis market but it also illustrates when we shade this area
above or below the line that look at the points at which we could shade where was
knee a key was in the ascendancy and where Peng was in the ascendancy you can
actually see that there are lots of opportunities within the market where
you could have profited from on both sides regardless of whatever
your position was when you actually looked at the market to start with and
that's more or less the appeal of trading the fact that if you pick the
right match then you will get loads of these swings and loads of opportunities
to profit as the match goes one way or the other and typically you tend to be
looking at WTA matches you tend to be looking at women's matches for this to
occur and typically you attend to look at competitive matches as well because
this sort of volatility that you're seeing if we look at the range of
volatility here excluding the final score you can see that it was pretty
wide you could have caught a big swing in both directions on both players at
one particular point now obviously there are going to be matches where the graph
just sort of does something like that or perhaps it deviates briefly before
heading back down but part of the skill of trading tennis is picking matches
where this is less likely and matches where you expect to see how much wider
swing in terms of volatility but anyhow this is how I tend to analyze matches
after they've occurred is I'll get better angels to look at a range of
matches and this is how I refine entry and exit points within tennis is to look
at the profit graph and see where the optimal moments to get involved in the
market were
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